Monday, September 26, 2022

The red-hot Diamondbacks aren’t getting any respect, plus more best bets for Tuesday

Happy Tuesday everyone, it’s Chris Bengel back with you. I hope everyone had a lovely holiday weekend filled with grilled food and winning bets.

We saw a handful of football upsets, including Florida taking down Utah and Florida State spoiling new LSU head coach Brian Kelly’s debut by blocking a potential game-tying extra point as time expired. I chose to stay away from placing any bets on college football‘s opening weekends. Sometimes it’s best to take a wait-and-see approach in order to know what teams look like in their season openers before having any skin in the game.

With us set to embark on another work week, I’ve got a few picks on the diamond that should make us some money before football returns.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Diamondbacks at Padres, 9:40 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV

Latest Odds: Arizona Diamondbacks +140

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  • Key Trend: The Diamondbacks are 9-2 in their last 11 games
  • The Pick: Diamondbacks (+140) 

This line shouldn’t be nearly as high as it is. Sure, the Padres have had a solid season, but not so much that they should be an overwhelming favorite over a team as hot as the Diamondbacks.

The Diamondbacks are winners of nine of their last 11 games, including a convincing 5-0 victory over the Padres on Monday. Arizona has allowed just one run or fewer in four of its last five games and held the Padres’ offense to just four hits as right-hander Ryne Nelson went seven strong innings. This is a team that has won each of their last three series, which have come against playoff contenders: the Brewers, Phillies and White Sox.

While Padres starter Joe Musgrove boasts a 3.01 ERA on the season, he’s posted a 1-3 record to go along with a 4.05 ERA over his last seven starts. Musgrove has also surrendered at least one home run in seven of his last eight starts, which is noteworthy considering that the Diamondbacks have slugged five home runs over their last five games. Diamondback starter Merrill Kelly has accumulated a 6-0 record to go along with a 1.50 ERA over his last 12 outings. In addition, Kelly has only yielded three or more earned runs in three of those starts. With the pitching matchup trending in the Diamondbacks’ direction, I’m more than happy to back them on the road.


💰 The Picks

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Braves at Athletics, 9:40 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV

Latest Odds: Over 8

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The Pick: Over 8.0 runs (-105)When it comes to an elite offense facing a lackluster opposition, I’m always backing the over. That’s exactly the situation that we find ourselves in with the Braves taking on the lowly Athletics.

A’s starter Cole Irvin has allowed five runs apiece in three of his last four starts, including his most recent start against the struggling Nationals. When it comes to the Braves, this is one of the most dangerous lineups in all of baseball. They rank second in home runs (203), runs (666) and total total bases (2,047) while also ranking third in RBIs (635). 

Notably, the over is 12-3-2 in the Braves’ last 17 interleague games. In addition, the over is 4-1 when the Braves are facing an interleague team on the road that possesses a losing record. The A’s will play part in this over as well, as they have scored at least five runs in three of their last five contests. Braves starter Kyle Wright has also proved to be a little bit more human in road starts this season as he owns a 2.90 ERA in 10 outings on the road.

Key Trend: The over is 6-0 in the Braves’ last six interleague games against a team with a losing record

Guardians at Royals, 8:10 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV

The Pick: Shane Bieber over 5.5 strikeouts (-173) —
 The juice may be a little bit high for this Tuesday’s strikeout prop, but it’s still definitely worth throwing some money on. After all, the Royals have been one of the more stagnant offensive teams in all of baseball.

In six of his last seven starts, Guardians starter Shane Bieber has tallied at least six strikeouts while also registering at least eight strikeouts in five of those outings. In Bieber’s most recent outing against the Orioles, he still managed to record 11 strikeouts despite giving up three runs. In addition, Bieber has failed to reach the six-strikeout mark in only eight of his 25 starts. Simply put: Bieber has been as steady as they come when it comes to striking out the opposition, so bet this with confidence.

Key Trend: Bieber has recorded at least six strikeouts in six of his last seven starts

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