Wednesday, February 8, 2023

SMU vs. North Texas odds, prediction, line: 2022 college football picks, Week 1 best bets from proven model

The North Texas Mean Green host the SMU Mustangs at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday at Apogee Stadium. SMU is reloading after head coach Sonny Dykes left for TCU at the end of last season, but the Mustangs spent five weeks inside the AP Top 25. North Texas finished the season with six wins in the regular season, five of which came in the final five games prior to the Mean Green’s Frisco Bowl appearance. Since 2014, SMU is 6-2 overall and against the spread versus North Texas, and the Mustangs won last year’s matchup 35-12. This game will be televised on CBS Sports Network. 

The Mustangs are favored by 11 points in the latest North Texas vs. SMU odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over-under is set at 68.5. Before making any SMU vs. North Texas picks, you’ll want to see the college football predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It enters Week 1 of the 2022 college football season on a 45-32 run on all top-rated college football side picks that dates back to 2021. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on North Texas vs. SMU and just locked in its picks and CFB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several college football odds for North Texas vs. SMU:

  • North Texas vs. SMU spread: North Texas +11
  • North Texas vs. SMU over-under: 68.5 points
  • North Texas vs. SMU picks: See picks here.

Featured Game | North Texas Mean Green vs. SMU Mustangs

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What to know about North Texas

The Mean Green are coming off of a 31-13 win against the UTEP Miners on Saturday. Quarterback Austin Aune completed just 55 percent of his passes, but finished with 236 yards and three touchdowns in the win. He’s off to a better start this year than how his season-long totals ended last year, with 1,991 passing yards, nine touchdowns and nine interceptions. Roderick Burns made the most of his three receptions, and finished with 72 receiving yards.

Ayo Adeyi made his case to move forward as the starting running back in UNT’s offense, and turned his 17 carries into 80 yards. Defensive end Kadren Johnson got the only sack in the game, but middle linebacker KD Davis led the team in tackles, with eight. Davis finished last season with 120 total tackles, and will be a player SMU is sure to be on the lookout for.

What to know about SMU

Former Oklahoma quarterback Tanner Mordecai showed that he had what it took to run Dykes’ offense last season, when he finished with 3,628 passing yards, 39 touchdowns and 12 interceptions last season. The Waco-area passer often looked for Danny Gray, who finished with 803 yards and nine touchdowns, but was drafted by the San Francisco 49ers. This year, another Dallas-area player is expected to step into the No. 1 receiver role in Rashee Rice, who finished with 670 yards and nine scores in 2021.

North Texas ranked 15th in the nation in rushing touchdowns last year, with 32 overall. However, SMU had a respectable run defense, and held opponents to 137.5 yards per game. Every starter in the Mustangs’ defensive front seven is a senior or grad transfer, so they should make things difficult on Adeyi and UNT’s other running backs.

How to make North Texas vs. SMU picks

The model has simulated North Texas vs. SMU 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over on the point total, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in over 50% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins North Texas vs. SMU? And which side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the North Texas vs. SMU spread you need to jump on Friday, all from the model that has crushed its college football picks, and find out.  

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