Wednesday, December 7, 2022

College football odds, picks, predictions for Week 1, 2022: Computer simulation backing Florida, Louisville

No. 3 Georgia lost five defensive stars during the first round of April’s NFL Draft, and the Bulldogs had 10 other players from their championship team also get selected. The Bulldogs allowed a modern-record 6.9 points per game during the 2021 regular season, but they will be playing under co-coordinators Glenn Schumann and Will Muschamp following Danny Lanning’s departure. Lanning, who took the Oregon head coaching position, will be hoping to spring a big upset against his former team when the No. 11 Ducks travel to Atlanta for Saturday’s showdown. Georgia is a whopping 16.5-point favorite in the latest Week 1 college football odds at Caesars Sportsbook.

The Ducks pulled off a big upset against Ohio State last season, but they have failed to cover the spread in six consecutive season openers. Which team should you be backing with your Week 1 college football bets? Before locking in any Week 1 college football picks for those games or others, be sure to see the latest college football predictions from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It enters Week 1 of the 2022 college football season on a 45-32 run on all top-rated college football spread and money-line picks that dates back to 2021. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 college football odds from Caesars and locked in picks for every FBS matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top college football predictions for Week 1

One of the college picks the model is high on in Week 1: Florida (+2.5) covers at home against No. 7 Utah at 7 p.m. ET. The Utes return 17 starters but they have developed a habit of getting off to slow starts before picking things up later in the season. In each of the last two years, Utah has lost each of its first two games versus FBS teams.

Florida will have the best player at the most important position come Saturday night in quarterback Anthony Richardson. He is a darkhorse Heisman candidate despite starting just one game last year. Richardson is a dual-threat QB who plays in an offense that should accentuate his skills. Utah struggled with these types of players last year, allowing an average of 89.5 rushing yards to quarterbacks Jaren Hall and Lucas Johnson in losses to BYU and San Diego State, respectively.

Richardson is projected to amass nearly 300 passing yards and over 40 rushing yards, while Florida’s running backs top 100 ground yards on their own. That will be just too much for Utah to keep up with as it is rather limited through the air, finishing with the second-fewest passing yards in the Pac-12 last season. The model has Florida winning outright and has the Gators covering in almost 60% of simulations.

Another prediction: Louisville (-5) covers on the road against Syracuse at 8 p.m. ET. The Cardinals have an outstanding offense, led by dual-threat quarterback Malik Cunningham. He is playing behind an offensive line that returns four starters who paved the way in a 41-3 blowout when these teams met last season.

Louisville has been dominant for the past decade in this series, winning and covering the spread in seven of the last eight meetings. Syracuse has not been holding up against conference foes of late, winning just twice in its last 15 ACC contests. The Cardinals have a deep group of running backs as well, so they will be able to control the pace of this game from start to finish. See which other teams the model likes here.

How to make college football picks for Week 1

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other FBS matchup in Week 1, and it’s calling for multiple outright upsets. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what college football picks can you make with confidence? And which favorites will go down hard? Check out the latest college football odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $3,600 in profit over the past six-plus seasons, and find out.

College football odds for Week 1 (via Caesars)

See full Week 1 college football picks, odds, predictions here

Saturday, Sept. 3

Colorado State at Michigan (-30.5, 60.5)

Featured Game | Michigan Wolverines vs. Colorado State Rams

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Cincinnati at Arkansas (-6.5, 53.5)

Featured Game | Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Cincinnati Bearcats

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Oregon at Georgia (-16.5, 54)

Featured Game | Georgia Bulldogs vs. Oregon Ducks

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UTEP at Oklahoma (-30.5, 57)

Rice at USC (-32.5, 61.5)

Utah at Florida (+2.5, 51.5)

Featured Game | Florida Gators vs. Utah Utes

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Utah State at Alabama (-41.5, 63)

Notre Dame at Ohio State (-16, 59)

Featured Game | Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

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Sunday, Sept. 4

Florida State at LSU (-3.5, 50)

Featured Game | LSU Tigers vs. Florida State Seminoles

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Monday, Sept. 5

Clemson vs. Georgia Tech (+23, 51)

Featured Game | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Clemson Tigers

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