Wednesday, December 7, 2022

Mississippi State vs. Memphis odds, line: 2022 college football picks, Week 1 predictions from proven model

The Mississippi State Bulldogs take on the Memphis Tigers at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Bulldogs head coach Mike Leach is heading into his third year with the program, and coming off of a seven-win season in 2021. Memphis head coach Ryan Silverfield is also gearing up for his third year at the helm, and will be looking for improvement after the Tigers took a step back last season. After winning eight games in his first year in Memphis, the Tigers finished with just six wins in 2021. The two programs played against each other early last year, and Memphis took a narrow 31-29 win at home. 

The Bulldogs are favored by 16 points in the latest Mississippi State vs. Memphis odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over-under is set at 57. Before you make any Memphis vs. Mississippi State picks, you need to see the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It enters Week 1 of the 2022 college football season on a 45-32 run on all top-rated college football side picks that dates back to 2021. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mississippi State vs. Memphis and just locked in its picks and CFB predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college football odds for Mississippi State vs. Memphis:

  • Mississippi State vs. Memphis spread: Mississippi State -16
  • Mississippi State vs. Memphis over-under: 57 points
  • Mississippi State vs. Memphis picks: See picks here.

Featured Game | Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Memphis Tigers

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What to know about the Mississippi State

Last season was a step in the right direction for Mississippi State, but the Bulldogs actually finished with two losses in Memphis. After losing to the Tigers earlier in the year, the Bulldogs were flat in their Liberty Bowl appearance against Texas Tech, and lost that matchup, 34-7. Fortunately, they get a shot at revenge against Memphis at home, and will do so with the return of quarterback Will Rogers, who threw for over 4,700 yards and 36 touchdowns. Also returning to the backfield is running back Jo’quavious Marks, who finished 2021 with 918 total yards and nine scores.

Mississippi State will be without last year’s leading receiver, Makai Polk, and must find a way to replace the 1,046 yards and nine touchdowns he had last season. Jaden Walley, who finished second on the team in receiving yards, has been jumped on the depth chart by redshirt sophomore Rufus Harvey, while Austin Williams looks to assume the role of top option in the passing attack. On the other side of the ball, Mississippi State’s defense nine starters that are either seniors or graduate transfers.

What you need to know about Memphis

Memphis has some returning players of its own that Silverfield needs to take a step forward this season, starting with sophomore quarterback Seth Henigan and redshirt junior wide receiver Jason Ivory. Henigan threw for 3,322 yards and 25 touchdowns, but completed just 59 percent of his passes last year. Ivory is expected to be the team’s top receiver after Calvin Austin was drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers and tight end Sean Dykes graduated after last season. Memphis finished with the sixth-worst defensive third down conversion percentage (48 percent) in all of college football last year, so Ivory will need to help keep the chains moving on offense.

Memphis was 27th in the nation in passing yards per game, and finished 2021 with 298.8 on average. However, Mississippi State was even better; the Bulldogs ranked seventh in the nation in passing yards per game, closing the season with 378.3 on average. Mike Leach offenses throw the ball at a breakneck pace, but Memphis only gave up 14 pass completions of 30 yards or more last season (23rd in college football).

How to make Mississippi State vs. Memphis picks

The model has simulated Mississippi State vs. Memphis 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under on the point total, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in over 60% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Mississippi State vs. Memphis? And which side of the spread cashes in over 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Mississippi State vs. Memphis spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that finished the past six-plus years up nearly $3,600 on its FBS college football picks, and find out.

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