Wednesday, February 8, 2023

Fantasy Football Today: One last round of bust picks plus expectations for every backfield

In an ideal world, every player would live up to our wildest expectations and there would be no such thing as busts. But that’s not the world we live in. We know some number of our favorite players are going to disappoint us this season — it’s not a question of “if,” it’s a question of “who.”

That’s what we’re trying to figure out in today’s newsletter. I have my bust alerts for you, and so do Jamey Eisenberg, Dave Richard, and Heath Cummings as you head into this final, massive draft weekend. For those of you who are drafting this weekend, make sure you didn’t miss our favorite sleepers and breakouts for this season, too.

Oh, and don’t forget to keep scrolling today, because in addition to our bust picks, I’ve written about where every single backfield in the NFL stands coming out of the preseason and into Week 1. All 32 teams, with starters and backups listed along with what I’m expecting to see from each team, both for Week 1 and the season as a whole, where applicable. There’s a whole bunch of actionable information in today’s newsletter, so make sure you scroll all the way down.   

As a bonus, keep an eye out this weekend for a couple of extra newsletters — on Saturday, we’ll go through every spot in the draft to walk you through how to approach building a team from the No. 1 to the No. 12 pick. And Sunday, the last big weekend draft day, we’ll have another Cheat Sheet ready for you to go, with everything you need to draft, from all of our sleepers, breakouts, and busts to every mock draft we did this preseason to our updated rankings. 

If you’re drafting this weekend, we’ve got you covered. 

One last round of busts

On Thursday’s episode of Fantasy Football Today on CBS Sports HQ, Jamey Eisenberg, Heath Cummings, and Dave Richard talked about their bust picks for the 2022 season, and as you’ll see, there’s plenty of overlap between their picks and my own, which are just below:

Please check the opt-in box to acknowledge that you would like to subscribe.

Thanks for signing up!

Keep an eye on your inbox.

Sorry!

There was an error processing your subscription.

Jamey’s busts

Heath’s busts

Dave’s busts

My biggest bust picks

  • Joe Burrow – Burrow’s price has gotten more reasonable as drafts have gone on, so it’s good to see people coming to their senses. He was the QB4 in NFC ADP for most of the offseason, but he’s dropped to seventh over the past week. That’s still too high, especially in CBS Fantasy leagues, where you have to spend a fifth-round pick to get him. I’m all about taking quarterbacks early this season, but that’s for the elite rushers at the position or the guys like Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert who have proven to be efficient, elite passers on high volume over multiple seasons. Burrow hasn’t done that, and there’s reason to think there’s regression coming from last season. He ranked first in yards per attempt at 8.9 and third in touchdown rate at 6.5%, and he primarily stood out with big plays – he had 12 completions of at least 50 yards with eight touchdowns on those completions, more than any QB has over the past decade. Yes, he has elite weapons and is still young, but I think it’s more likely Burrow takes a step back in terms of his efficiency than repeats it. 
  • Aaron Rodgers – Over the past two seasons, the Packers have 87 passing touchdowns and 31 rushing touchdowns, as Rodgers has gone back to dominating near the red zone. That’s helped him remain an elite Fantasy QB even though he doesn’t throw the ball as often as some of his competition and isn’t much of a runner at this point in his career. But, you don’t have to go far back to see a more even split for the Packers – they had 18 rushing touchdowns to 26 pass touchdowns in 2019, the first year under Matt LaFleur. I’m expecting some regression from Rodgers’ other-worldly efficiency without Davante Adams, and more emphasis on the run game overall. Doubting Rodgers has been a pricey mistake the past two seasons, but I think there’s good reason to do so this time around. 
  • Derrick Henry – Henry has seen his carries per game increase in three straight seasons, but the seemingly invincible back finally suffered a serious injury in 2021, missing the second half of the season with a fractured foot .. and it’s like we’re pretending that just didn’t happen. Henry is the No. 2 back in CBS Fantasy ADP, and as long as he’s healthy, that seems like a decent bet – he has averaged 20-plus PPR points per game in three straight seasons. However, he has required 300-plus carries to get here – or, in the case of 2022, a whopping 465-carry pace. If he can manage to stay healthy, Henry is a good bet for elite production, but that’s suddenly a lot to ask from a soon-to-be 29-year-old, 247-pound running back coming off a foot injury. I don’t mind him as a late-first or early-second round pick, but seeing as Henry never makes it to that range, I’m not going to have him on any of my rosters. That’s fine. 
  • Dameon Pierce – The fact that Pierce appears to have locked up a significant role as a fourth-round rookie makes him an outlier – since 2002, there have only been seven running backs selected in the fourth round or later with 200-plus carries in their rookie season. There have also been just six rookie running backs drafted that late to average more than 11.3 PPR points per game in the past 20 seasons, too – that’s out of 314 backs selected in that span. Pierce already seems to have the kind of role running backs in his situation rarely get, but it’s worth considering that … perhaps he fell that far in the draft for a reason. Maybe it was because his coaches in Florida just didn’t know what they had and used him wrong, but the track record of running backs with a career-high in carries in college in the low-100s isn’t great. Pierce is the lead back for a bad offense with an uncertain role in the passing game, and while I was all about drafting him when he cost a ninth-round pick, it’s a whole different ballgame in the fourth or fifth round. You’re betting against history here. 
  • Josh Jacobs – There are drafts where Jacobs falls far enough that it’s easy to overlook the concerns, but it isn’t happening often enough, it seems. In CBS Fantasy leagues, Jacobs’ ADP is at 39.07, ahead of David Montgomery, among others. Jacobs is playing on the final year of his contract for a coaching staff and leadership team that didn’t invest in him and has a history dating back to New England of changing running backs on a seeming whim. Jacobs seems like a safe bet for strong volume, but I’m expecting Ameer Abdullah to take on most of the early-season passing situations, and rookie Zamir White could figure into the early-down work too. I just can’t justify a top-40 – or even top-50 — pick on him. 
  • CeeDee Lamb – Being lower than the Fantasy industry consensus on Lamb has worked out well so far. The case for him the past two seasons is that he’s such an overwhelming talent that he had to be a Fantasy stud regardless of target competition. That didn’t work out, but maybe now that Amari Cooper is gone, he’ll take that big step forward? I do expect him to be better than he was in 2021, but I’m not expecting a massive improvement – the Cowboys have spread the ball around a ton with Kellen Moore as QB no matter who has been available. Back in 2019, when it was just Cooper and Michael Gallup and Randall Cobb, no player had more than 119 targets despite the Cowboys throwing 597 passes. Maybe Lamb is just that much better than Cooper, but I’m expecting him to be in the 130-target range, which should be enough to make him a solid low-end WR1 – and probably a disappointment based on where most Fantasy players are drafting him. 
  • Courtland Sutton – I don’t mind Sutton at his CBS Fantasy ADP of 52.71, but that’s still around 20 spots north of Jerry Jeudy, which I don’t love. But he’s even harder to justify at his NFC ADP of 35.55. Sutton has proven more at the NFL level than Jeudy, for sure, though you have to go back to 2019 to see it, because he wasn’t particularly good last season. And that was especially true when Jeudy was on the field – he averaged 15.93 PPR points in the seven games Jeudy missed last season and just 4.01 in 10 when Jeudy was active. Yes, I know all about the camp reports that Sutton has been Russell Wilson‘s favorite target, and if you want to rank him ahead of Jeudy based on that, go ahead. I still don’t think that justifies the gap between the two, and Sutton is an easy fade if someone wants to take him in the third round, which is basically drafting him to be as good as Tyler Lockett ever was with Wilson. 
  • Terry McLaurin – McLaurin isn’t someone I’m actively fading, but I haven’t ended up with him in any of my drafts recently. I think it’s fair to assume Carson Wentz is an improvement on what McLaurin has had the past few years, but I’m not sure he’s a big improvement, and with first-rounder Jahan Dotson here now and Curtis Samuel healthy, he has more target competition than he’s had since his breakout. I think there’s a decent chance McLaurin is a frustrating boom-or-bust, fringe WR2, like he was last season. And I’m not sure he has enough upside to justify the headache. 
  • Allen Lazard – I can sort of squint and see the case for Gabe Davis going from non-entity to Fantasy star, but it’s a lot harder to believe in Lazard. We’re talking about a 27-year-old who has played a pretty significant role three years in a row and has four career games with 75 or more yards. Sure, Davante Adams is out of the picture, but if Lazard was good enough to justify a significant share of the team’s targets, wouldn’t he have earned them at some point before this? He can have a career-best season and still be a Fantasy also-ran, and that’s what I’m expecting. There will be weeks where Lazard is useful for Fantasy, but they will be too hard to predict to justify the effort. 
  • George Kittle – I think Kittle might just be the best tight end in football, and I’m not forgetting about Travis Kelce. But he’s going to be asked to do even more blocking in what I expect to be an even more run-heavy offense in San Francisco, which means he’s going to need to be even more efficient to live up to expectations. He’s one of the best playmakers with the ball in his hands at any position, and Kyle Shanahan will put him in position to make plays, but he’s also relying on an unproven QB in Trey Lance to get him the ball, and I’m worried about the quality of those targets. Lance raises the ceiling of this 49ers offense, but at least for Fantasy, he’s a complicating factor – his willingness and ability to scramble especially could limit pass-catching opportunities. Add in the competition from Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyiuk for targets, and I just think there’s a good chance Kittle has an All-Pro season that disappoints Fantasy players. 
  • Dawson Knox – I could just type, “Look at Robert Tonyan this time last year,” and be done with it. Knox clearly has Josh Allen‘s trust in the red zone, but that was also the case for why Tonyan was going to be a viable starting Fantasy option. Tonyan could score a touchdown once every eight targets again, but if we’re also expecting Stefon Diggs to be a WR1 and for Gabe Davis to dominate, and for Isaiah McKenzie to contribute … Well, it gets hard to see how Knox’s role grows. It’s pretty easy to fade the guy who was already playing pretty much every snap and had eight games with four or fewer targets last season.

Breaking down every RB depth chart

Cardinals 

I’ve moved Benjamin ahead of Williams in my mental hierarchy, but my expectation is this will be a split if Conner misses any time. The question that remains unanswered is how they will split passing downs work — Conner is a very good pass-catcher, and an increased role late last season fueled a massive stretch to close the season. If he’s getting five targets per game and the goal-line work, he’s a top-10 RB when healthy. 

Falcons

With Qadree Ollison and Caleb Huntley cut, there’s a bit of clarity here. I’m expecting Patterson to be the lead back, but the Falcons are probably going to be pretty careful with his workload, so I’d be surprised if he got even 50% of the touches. This’ll be a committee, and Allgeier has a real chance to earn a significant role early on. 

Please check the opt-in box to acknowledge that you would like to subscribe.

Thanks for signing up!

Keep an eye on your inbox.

Sorry!

There was an error processing your subscription.

Ravens

The Ravens recently added Drake, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he was the lead back for Week 1. Dobbins is still coming along slowly and has yet to take contact at practice, so at this point I’d guess it’s more likely than not that he sits out Week 1. It’ll be a split between Drake and Davis in Week 1 if that’s the case, and it might be a few weeks until Dobbins is ready for something like a full workload, so just know that going in. 

Bills

Moss was actually running ahead of Cook during the preseason, after most Fantasy players had left him for dead. It sounds like all three could be active on game days, however Singletary dominated snaps with the first-team offense in the preseason, so he should still be the lead back. He’s a solid RB3, especially if you wait. 

Panthers

All three backs figure to be active on game days, but there’s no reason to think McCaffrey is going to start resting series regularly. Panthers coach Matt Rhule has talked openly about how he isn’t worried about McCaffrey’s injury luck over the past few seasons, so I’m still expecting him to have the most valuable role in Fantasy. He’s my No. 1 RB, and I expect Hubbard and Foreman to split work if McCaffrey does miss any time. 

Bears

There was speculation among Fantasy analysts that Herbert might have a bigger role this season, and it’s possible he will given the Bears lack of weapons. However, Montgomery played 20 of 22 first-team snaps in his lone preseason action in the finale, so I’m not expecting Herbert to take much away from Montgomery unless Montgomery just falls flat on his face. His high-volume role seems secure. 

Bengals

Maybe the fact that Evans hasn’t really been able to push Perine for the RB2 role yet is a sign that Fantasy players don’t have much reason to be excited about him. Mixon is going to get a heavy rushing workload and decent passing work, but Perine is going to have a role in some obvious passing downs, and should be viewed as the handcuff to Mixon. 

Browns

We know how this works: Chubb is arguably the best rusher in the league and Hunt is one of the best complementary backs in the league. As long as both are healthy, they take just enough from one another to limit Chubb to more of an RB2 role, while Hunt is a flex. But he remains one of the highest-upside backups in the league. This offense is going to have to ride both backs with Deshaun Watson suspended for the first 11 games, and unless there is some kind of surprise on the Hunt-trade-demand front, the status quo of the past two seasons should reign. 

Cowboys

Fantasy players may not like it, but Elliott is still a core piece of the Cowboys offense. In fact, owner Jerry Jones said at the start of training camp he still wants Elliott to be the “focus” of the offense, though he added there is “room for Pollard while Zeke is in there.” For what it’s worth, Elliott was probably better than you remember before his early-season injury – he averaged 101.4 yards per game with six touchdowns in the first five games, though starting tackle Tyron Smith‘s injury could drag the whole offense down.  

Lions

Lions coach Dan Campbell is acknowledging that the team has to be careful in managing Swift’s workload after he has struggled with injuries in his first two seasons. Swift has Austin Ekeler/Alvin Kamara-esque upside as a pass-catcher and could be a top five Fantasy RB, but expect WIlliams to get 8-12 touches most weeks, similar to last season. 

Packers

This is going to be a split backfield just as it was last season, though with the absence of Davante Adams, more may be asked of both in the passing game. Aaron Rodgers praised Dillon’s growth in the passing game since the team acquired him, but Jones still figures to be the primary pass-catcher out of the backfield. For his part, CBS Sports’ Chris Trapasso recently wrote about why he thinks this is the year Dillon takes over as the team’s primary back. One interesting wrinkle here is that wide receiver Amari Rodgers figures to see some time in the backfield after the team opted to keep just two running backs on the roster. 

Texans

Burkhead and Ogunbowale are more experienced as pass catchers, so I’m expected to see the two of them come in on obvious passing downs, but this should be Pierce’s role otherwise. I’m concerned about Pierce’s upside in what I still expect to be a very bad offense, which is why I don’t buy him as a top-20 back or a fourth-round pick, which is where he’s going in a lot of drafts. But, he has a chance to carve out a significant role — Lovie Smith’s primary running backs have routinely racked up 300-plus touches over the years.     

Colts

“I’m not saying he won’t lead the league in touches, because you never know how things are going to play out. But I almost don’t want him to.” That was what Colts coach Frank Reich had to say about Taylor, noting that “you don’t see teams that have this ground-and-pound run game win championships.” That’s not what you want to hear about your No. 1 overall pick — not my No. 1 overall pick, though — especially after an offseason where the Colts found as many ways as possible to say they want to get Nyheim Hines more involved. Still, Taylor figures to be among the league leaders in carries, and maybe he’ll see an increase in passing game usage with new QB Matt Ryan. This offense is still going to run through Taylor, but don’t expect the same kind of dominance as last season. 

Jaguars

  • No. 1: James Robinson/Travis Etienne
  • Backups: Snoop Conner, JaMycal Hasty

It might be more accurate to say Etienne is the lead to open the season, with Robinson’s status still somewhat up in the air. He could be ready for Week 1 coming back from his ruptured Achilles, but I’m expecting him to be worked in pretty slowly. And that gives Etienne a big opportunity to emerge as a star and run away with the job. Robinson is going to have a role no matter what, but if Etienne shows a spark early, that could be the difference between a 55-45 split and a 70-30 one, which could be the difference between RB1 upside for Etienne and also-ran status in Fantasy. 

Chiefs

It was actually kind of surprising to see Jones make the final roster, because by all accounts he was on the bubble through most of the preseason. It’s not clear if he’ll have any role, but this is going to be a pretty messy situation either way. McKinnon seems likely to have a healthy passing downs role while Pacheco was getting a lot of first-team work in the preseason, so don’t expect Clyde Edwards-Helaire to dominate work here. He should be the lead back, but it might be enough of a rotation to render him a fringe Fantasy starter. 

Broncos

Williams is the lead back, but the question is, is that a 55-45 split or a 70-30 split? We haven’t heard much about that since training camp got going, but one prominent Broncos beat writer reported that it’s more like a 55-45 split, which seems to have cooled a lot of the hype around Williams over the past month or so. The reality is, this was always heading toward a split, and the case for drafting Williams revolves around not his Week 1 workload but the potential that he’s a superstar by the Fantasy playoffs — whether because of a Gordon injury or just because this offense is so good and he forces the issue. Forcing Williams to be an elite RB1 was always setting him up for disappointment; letting him fall to the third round makes him a nice dice roll. 

Raiders

  • No. 1: Josh Jacobs
  • Backups: Ameer Abdullah, Zamir White

Jacobs is the lead back to open the season and Abdullah seems to be in the passing downs role, and that’s all I feel comfortable projecting at this point. Jacobs could remain the lead back all season, or he could cede early-down carries to White as soon as the second drive of the season and neither would surprise me. White is a favorite late-round sleeper and Jacobs is a bust for me, mostly because that uncertainty favors the cheaper option. 

Chargers

Spiller looks like a much less interesting late-round sleeper after the Chargers signed Michel, who I’m assuming will step into the complementary role alongside Ekeler. Ekeler is the lead back, but the Chargers always use multiple backs, though I don’t expect Michel to be much of a hindrance to Ekeler being an elite Fantasy option. Michel’s appeal lies in a very valuable role if something happens to Ekeler, and I’m assuming he’d step into a three-down role if Ekeler misses time, making him a viable late-round target. 

Rams

Both Akers and Henderson missed time in camp with soft-tissue injuries, but both were back at practice this week and seem likely to be fine for Week 1. The Fantasy community has been treating Akers like the No. 1 back, but reports out of Rams camp have had Akers and Henderson splitting work pretty evenly when healthy. Treat Akers like the lead back, but not with so much certainty that you just pencil him in as a starter — if he can’t rediscover some of his pre-Achilles burst, Henderson looms as a real threat to his work. 

Dolphins

Edmonds seems set to at least split early-down work while playing the majority of passing downs, with Mostert likely to split those early-down snaps. The question is, does Edmonds have the kind of No. 1 RB workload that sees him lead the way in early downs in addition to dominating passing snaps? I’m expecting Mostert to have a pretty sizable role as long as he’s healthy, given his success and experience in this system. And, well, he’s healthy for Week 1, it seems. He’s a great early-season sleeper.  

Vikings

The only question here is whether, between now and Week 1, the Vikings will opt to move Mattison after failing to come to an agreement on a contract extension. If not, there’s nothing to discuss here — Mattison is arguably the best handcuff in Fantasy, a sure-fire RB1 if Cook misses time. And Cook has a tendency to miss time. If Mattison is traded, Ty Chandler and Kene Nwangwu would battle for the RB2 spot, with Nwangu likely in the lead based on experience. 

Patriots

The Patriots seem to have changed their expectations for the RB position, with both Harris and especially Stevenson apparently seeing a lot more passing work than usual in the preseason and training camp. Stevenson is one of the Fantasy community’s favorite breakouts — and I count myself among those, obviously. But Harris figures to open the season as the lead back, and if he’s going to see more receiving opportunities than he has in the past, it’s possible we’re overlooking some obvious upside in his profile by getting excited about the shiny new thing. 

Saints

It looks like Kamara isn’t going to face a suspension this season, and he should continue to be one of the best backs in Fantasy as long as he’s active. Mark Ingram will have a role, but Kamara is the lead back here, especially in the passing game. 

Giants

As long as Barkley is healthy, I’m not expecting to see much of anyone else here. Draft Breida or Williams with your last pick in case something happens to Barkley in the first week or two, but you’ll be dropping them soon enough. 

Jets

At this point, it seems more likely than not that Carter will start in Week 1, but I’m still listing Hall as a co-starter, because I just have a hard time seeing how he’s going to be in reserve role. A timeshare? Sure, that makes sense — the Jets coaches come from San Francisco, where multiple backs are always in play. But Hall is going to have a role, and he’s falling enough in drafts to the point where I actually like drafting him now, especially if Dameon Pierce is going to go ahead of him. Give me the guy with the proven track record of high-level production who also had elite testing metrics at the combine. That’s a profile that wins in the long run. 

Eagles

The Eagles claimed Sermon on waivers after the 49ers waived him, and it’s possible he serves as a spoiler. The Eagles liked having a bigger back in Jordan Howard, who averaged 12.3 carries per game despite being inactive for much of the first half of the season. If Sanders is healthy — a big if, seeing as he’s still missing practice with a hamstring injury — he figures to be the lead back. But he’s in a similar spot as Josh Jacobs, as he isn’t under contract for next season and could see his role diminished quickly if he doesn’t impress. 

Steelers

There has been some talk this offseason about limiting Harris’ workload, and maybe the Lisfranc sprain he dealt with in camp will bring that to fruition. However, all parties involved have downplayed the injury, so at the very least, I expect Harris to be in a similar role to last season as long as he’s healthy. Whether he can hold up to that workload is probably the bigger question. 

49ers

The 49ers always seem to have a back come out of nowhere, so keep an eye on Mason early in the season. He’s earned some positive reviews in camp and looked good in preseason snaps, and he gives the 49ers a different look with a bigger, more physical approach. Mitchell is the lead back as long as he’s healthy, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Mason or Davis-Price were the lead back ahead of Wilson if something caused Mitchell to miss time. 

Seahawks

Penny is the starter, and Walker’s early-season role is in doubt as he continues to recover from hernia surgery. Homer figures to see some passing downs work, but Penny is the only back worth more than a late-round look here as long as Walker is ailing. Penny is a fringe RB2 as long as Walker is out. 

Buccaneers

The Buccaneers like White enough that they invested a third-round pick in him, but Fournette dominated snaps with Tom Brady in the preseason and figures to continue to fill a very valuable role as the team’s primary back. If he gets hurt, White could emerge as a very useful Fantasy option, but it probably won’t happen early in the season. 

Titans

Hilliard seems to be the clear No. 2 back here, and that means he’ll see some time on passing downs to keep Henry fresh and is the backup if anything happens to Henry. The Titans would likely turn to Haskins if something happened to Henry, but it sounds like Hilliard is the clear insurance policy for Henry. 

Commanders

Robinson was likely set to open the season as the team’s lead rusher before he was shot last weekend, and his injuries from that incident will keep him out for at least the first four games of the season — though, apparently it may just be those four games, which is incredible. Gibson figures to return to the lead back role, with McKissic returning to his role as the primary pass-catching back, and both are viable starters to open the season. Gibson may step into McKissic’s role while splitting the rushing downs when Robinson is healthy, and I still like him as an RB2 in the sixth- or seventh round range. 

Related articles

Comments

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

Share article

Latest articles

Newsletter

Subscribe to stay updated.