Wednesday, December 7, 2022

2023 Super Bowl odds, staff picks: Bills favorites for good reason, Chargers and Eagles viewed as sleepers

The Los Angeles Rams capped the 2021 NFL season with a Lombardi Trophy, as their trade for former Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford paid immediate dividends. They defeated the Cincinnati Bengals in the big game, who put together a magical run sparked by second-year quarterback Joe Burrow and Offensive Rookie of the Year Ja’Marr Chase

Who will be the “Rams” and “Bengals” of the 2022 season? Could a quarterback changing teams take their new club to the Super Bowl? Could there be a young quarterback ready to make a run like Burrow did? 

Each year, I attempt to gather the best and brightest at CBS Sports to talk about Super Bowl picks. Here’s the rundown of the panel: Senior writer Pete Prisco and Pick Six Podcast host Will Brinson, plus CBS Sports editors Kevin Steimle, Brett Anderson and Kyle Stackpole, writers John Breech, Ryan Wilson, Chris Trapasso, Jordan Dajani, Shanna McCarriston, Jared Dubin, Josh Edwards, Tyler Sullivan, Bryan DeArdo, Cody Benjamin and Jeff Kerr. 

Before we get into the best bets, let’s take a look at Super Bowl odds for all 32 teams.

All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.

Super Bowl odds

Buffalo Bills (+600)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+750)

Los Angeles Rams (+1100)

Kansas City Chiefs (+1100)

Green Bay Packers (+1200)

Los Angeles Chargers (+1400)

San Francisco 49ers (+1600)

Denver Broncos (+1600)

Baltimore Ravens (+1800)

Dallas Cowboys (+2000)

Cincinnati Bengals (+2000)

Indianapolis Colts (+2500)

Philadelphia Eagles (+2500)

Las Vegas Raiders (+3000)

Arizona Cardinals (+3500)

Cleveland Browns (+3500)

Tennessee Titans (+3500)

Miami Dolphins (+3500)

New England Patriots (+4000)

New Orleans Saints (+4000)

Minnesota Vikings (+4000)

Washington Commanders (+8000)

Pittsburgh Steelers (+8000)

New York Giants (+10000)

Carolina Panthers (+12500)

Detroit Lions (+12500)

Jacksonville Jaguars (+12500)

Chicago Bears (+15000)

New York Jets (+15000)

Seattle Seahawks (+20000)

Atlanta Falcons (+25000)

Houston Texans (+30000)

CBS Sports Staff Best Bets

Buffalo Bills +600

Edwards: Buffalo is the leader in the clubhouse as far as Super Bowl favorites are concerned. They have compiled elite talent on each side of the ball and should be motivated after the way last season ended. The winner of Buffalo-Kansas City was destined to lose the following week after such an emotional finish.

Prisco: Josh Allen will win the MVP as the offense will be even more explosive than a year ago. They will be tough to stop. But it’s the defensive line that will be the difference from last year. They roll in eight guys and Von Miller gives them their sack-fumble-game-over pass rusher. 

Sullivan: Chalk play but if there was ever a year that the Bills win it all, it’s this year. Going into the offseason, Buffalo already had one of the top rosters in the NFL. Then, they turned around and added Von Miller into the equation on a defense that was No. 1 in the league in DVOA a year ago and will be getting back All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White at some point. The departure of Brian Daboll was a concern for me until I saw Josh Allen and the offense hum whenever they were on the field during the preseason. Ken Dorsey will be just fine leading this unit and Buffalo is a rightful favorite to win it all. 

McCarriston: The Bills need to get to a Super Bowl soon. Yes, I said NEED, because while they have seen success with Josh Allen as far as the regular season is concerned, with what they are capable of, anything less than a championship appearance is a letdown for the team. Last year I thought the Bills should have represented the AFC and I think the playoff disappointment will help fuel this season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +750

Benjamin: Boring! But who cares? Tom Brady is still talented enough to be the story of the NFL at age 45, and wouldn’t it be just like his storybook career to come out of a “retirement” just to dance all over the rest of the league for a record eighth time?

McCarriston: Tom will turn the hate into Super Bowl No. 8. Brady missing 11 days of training camp caused a lot of questions and since he is not saying much at the podium about the missed time, he will let his actions on the field speak for him. Every year people predict Brady will fall off the cliff, but that year has yet to come. Could he win one more and be satisfied enough with his career to retire? Since he just un-retired, and clearly still has the drive to play, I won’t predict that quite yet.

Los Angeles Rams +1100

Dajani: First of all, I get it. A team repeating as Super Bowl champions does not happen often. The Patriots are the only team since 2000 to do so. But I think it’s very clear the Rams are all-in on winning again. Stafford told me this offseason that getting his first Super Bowl just makes him want another one, and the front office seems to agree. They went out and signed wide receiver Allen Robinson in free agency, who is certainly a bounce-back candidate in 2022, and took Bobby Wagner from the rival Seahawks — who can still play high-level ball. Running back Cam Akers is back healthy as well, and I’m confident this team will win the division again. They will have another opportunity to make a run. 

Kerr: This is strong value for a team that’s one of the best in the NFC — and arguably better than last year. Joe Noteboom is a very good left tackle and a more than adequate replacement for Andrew Whittworth. Matthew Stafford could have an even better year two with Sean McVay and now has Allen Robinson to throw the ball to. The defense still has Aaron Donald and added Bobby Wagner. Troy Hill is also back. The Rams should be in the title mix all year. 

Kansas City Chiefs +1100

Dubin: 11-to-1 for Mahomes and Andy Reid? Thank you very much.

Kerr: This is really good value for a team that has Andy Reid as its head coach and Patrick Mahomes as its quarterback. There’s too big a deal about the loss of Tyreek Hill when Kansas City is deeper at wide receiver and Mahomes is a better quarterback. The defense is also an improved unit, especially at edge rusher and linebacker. The Chiefs have won 12+ games and have reached the conference championship game in each of the four years Mahomes and Reid have been together. Kansas City is always in the hunt. 

Green Bay Packers +1200

Prisco: Yes, Aaron Rodgers lost Davante Adams. But he’s Aaron Rodgers. The offense will be fine. But the defense could be special. With a secondary as good as any in the league and an emerging star pass rusher in Rashan Gary, the defense will carry this team early as the offense settles in for the second half and the postseason.

Breech: The Packers have the two-time reigning NFL MVP and they’ve won 13 games three years in a row, but somehow, people are still sleeping on them. I don’t sleep on anyone because I don’t sleep. At 12-to-1, I like the value of the Packers winning it all.

Los Angeles Chargers +1400

Edwards: Los Angeles has a well-rounded roster and a forward-thinking head coach. It will be a grind getting through the AFC West but they should be better for it. Having an elite quarterback is half the battle, so the Chargers should be well-positioned to make a run this season. I like the value. Philadelphia (+2500) is another value that would intrigue me.

Wilson: The Chargers have a history of falling short of expectations but this group, starting with Justin Herbert, might be the best team in the league. The skill-position players are special, the offensive line is a top-5 unit as is the defense. Yeah, they play in the AFC West, the World Cup equivalent of the Group of Death, but not only do I think they win the division, but they have a legit shot at wining the Lombardy Trophy.

Trapasso: Thinking of value of course with this bet, the Chargers still feel like a bargain with the sixth-best Super Bowl odds entering the season. They have the franchise quarterback in Justin Herbert, impressive skill-position talent around him, and added Khalil Mack and JC Jackson to the defense, a unit that’s been shoddy over the past few years. Plus, they landed another high-floor blocker in the first round of the draft.

Dajani: The Chargers are a team I see making a huge jump in 2022 — even though they were not the only team in the AFC West to improve this offseason. Justin Herbert is a legitimate star, L.A. continued to build its offensive line with the Zion Johnson selection, the Chargers kept Mike Williams in the fold, they added Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson, kept Derwin James happy and improved on the defensive line — which was an important item on their free-agency to-do list. I picked the Chargers to win the division this year, and I think they are a solid Super Bowl play, too.

San Francisco 49ers +1600

DeArdo: San Francisco’s odds are a little low for a team that came up just short of reaching the Big Game this past January. The 49ers have essentially the same team back for 2022 and are led by one of the league’s best coaches in Kyle Shanahan. If they are able to navigate through the treacherous NFC West division, the 49ers should be considered a serious Super Bowl contender once again.

Stackpole: The 49ers’ range of possibilities includes sophomore Trey Lance stumbling out of the gate, the team benching him, and San Francisco turning to Jimmy Garoppolo to salvage a postseason berth with a Super Bowl-caliber roster. But there’s also the other end of the spectrum, where Lance’s dual-threat abilities take Kyle Shanahan’s offense to heights that were impossible with Garoppolo under center. At 16-to-1, give me Lance’s upside — knowing full well that even if Garoppolo took over, the 49ers could advance deep enough into the playoffs to create a hedge opportunity.

Denver Broncos +1600

Breech: The past two Super Bowls have both been won by a quarterback who was in his first year with a new team and for some reason, I could see it happening again this year. The Broncos have bettor friendly odds (16-to-1) and they have a quarterback who knows what it takes to win it all.

Steimle: What Breech said. I like the idea of this happening three years in a row and Russ has the pedigree to pull it off. 

Baltimore Ravens +1800

Dubin: 18-to-1 for a Ravens team that should be so much better this year than it was a year ago simply due to better health luck seems like a very nice value. 

Benjamin: Lamar Jackson detractors, feast on this. Few players are as electrifying at their best, and what better way for Jackson to cash in on a new deal than by finally proving he can lead a real playoff run? It helps they are healthier across the board and the defense is restocked on the back end.

Brinson: Easily my favorite Super Bowl bet, the Ravens also deserve consideration for the division bet and I wouldn’t be opposed to Lamar Jackson MVP futures as well. Baltimore has elite talent on both sides of the ball, benefits from turnover in Pittsburgh and the Deshaun Watson suspension in Cleveland. Last year, the Ravens had more than 190 adjusted games lost per Football Outsiders, by far the most in the league; Baltimore should benefit greatly from some regression to the man on that front.

Cincinnati Bengals +2000

DeArdo: The defending AFC champions have the eleventh-highest odds to get back to the big game this year. I know the track record of Super Bowl runner-ups making it back to the big game the following year isn’t good, but if any prior runner-up was more prepared to get back to the dance than these Bengals, I’d like to see them. Cincinnati should be better this season. They’ve revamped their offensive line with established veterans. Joe Burrow should be even better in his third season. His receiving corps is arguably the NFL’s best. The Bengals’ defense includes several studs at each level. And they also have arguably the NFL’s best kicker, Evan McPherson. This will end up being a steal if Cincinnati get back to the Super Bowl in February.

Philadelphia Eagles +2500

Sullivan: My favorite longshot of the summer! The Eagles could make some serious noise in 2022 so long as Jalen Hurts makes the strides we all anticipate. He is heading into Year 2 of being in Nick Sirianni’s system and has a brand new weapon in A.J. Brown at his disposal. The rest of the roster also is primed to be a problem for the rest of the league, too. On top of that, they have the second-easiest schedule in the NFL when looking at opponents’ projected win totals and that could set them up for a campaign that possibly leads them to the No. 1 seed in the NFC. And if the road through the conference has to go through Philly, that’s going to be tough for any team to match. All that makes them my sleeper candidate to not only make it to Glendale but hoist the Lombardi Trophy when it’s over.

Anderson: There are 13 teams with shorter Super Bowl odds than the Eagles, which is in the range where they finished last season. But is that where they should be? Philly had a tremendous offseason on the heels of Jalen Hurts making the playoffs in his first full year as starter, despite a rookie WR as his No. 1. Now his top target is A.J. Brown. On defense, Philly added starters Haason Reddick, Kyzir White and James Bradberry, and drafted Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean. They’ve got the NFL’s second easiest schedule by projected win totals. Hurts is set up to take a sizable step, and if he does, 25-1 is going to look pretty great (just wish we could still get them at the 30-1 of about a month ago).

Brinson: I might prefer the 49ers from the NFC, but the number (16-1) is extremely short. The Eagles were obviously much more attractive when they were north of 30, but the offseason couldn’t have gone better for Philly. The Eagles landed Jordan Davis and A.J. Brown (via trade) on the first day of the draft and have built out the OL/DL in 2017 fashion with fantastic depth. The Cowboys keep dealing with key injuries (notably Tyron Smith) and the artist formerly known as the WFT and the Giants still have a ways to go to challenge here. If Jalen Hurts takes any kind of reasonable step forward in his ability as a passer, this team has legitimate Super Bowl winning upside.

Steimle: I think Jalen Hurts takes a big step forward this season thanks to new weapon, A.J. Brown. The Eagles alway seem to win the offseason and this offseason was no different. I really like this roster and as a Giants fan that was tough to type. The NFC is wide open, so why not take a shot with Philly? 

Indianapolis Colts +2500

Stackpole: The Carson Wentz-led Colts led for 562 minutes last season, which was more than both No. 1 seeds in the Packers (521) and Titans (490). This team absolutely should have made the playoffs, and it had a chance to make a deep run — that is until Wentz choked it away in Jacksonville Week 17. Enter Matt Ryan, a steady, veteran presence who’s passing ability will prevent opponents from stacking the box against Jonathan Taylor. An already stout defense also improved, adding Pro Bowlers in defensive end Yannick Ngakoue and cornerback Stephon Gilmore. The AFC South will be better across the board this season, but that doesn’t mean Indianapolis can’t reel off four or five wins within its division and set itself up for a nice seed come playoff time. And once they’re in the postseason, the Colts can control the clock with their running game and defense — without having to worry about whether Wentz is going to throw it all away. At 25-to-1, that’s a formula worth betting on.

Miami Dolphins +3500

Anderson: It’s not advisable to put money on one of the Super Bowl favorites before the season kicks off — you want a big payout if you’re going to bet this far in advance. A 35-1 long shot fits the bill, especially one that added Tyreek Hill, Terron Armstead, a stable of new RBs and a creative coach. If Tua Tagovailoa can take a step forward (why not?) and the run game gets going (seems likely), Miami’s in business. Could that translate to a Lombardi trophy? Stranger things have happened.

New Orleans Saints +4000

Wilson: This seems crazy, I get it. But if Jameis Winston can play like he did before a knee injury ended his season last October, New Orleans can overtake the Buccaneers in the division. That doesn’t even feel controversial. Michael Thomas, Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara are all difference-makers, and the defense is among the best units in the conference. And if the Saints can get to the postseason, anything can happen, especially in the NFC where the list of Super Bowl contenders is considerably shorter than that of their AFC counterparts.

New York Jets +15000

Trapasso: Feeling frisky, are we? Well then, this is the bet for you. Don’t mind my outdated Austin Powers reference. This selection is based on the premise that there are many parallels between this year’s Jets and last year’s Bengals. Second-year quarterback who went early in the draft. Deep defensive line without a legitimate superstar. Bunch of young, first-and- second-round wide receivers. Average-at-best offensive line. Seemingly daunting division. Now, remember, this is my tremendous value pick, not something I envision happening. I don’t think the Jets are a legitimate Super Bowl contender. But, hey, a $20 bet on the Jets would yield $3,020 if Zach Wilson manages to will the Jets to a Super Bowl victory this season.  

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