Wednesday, February 8, 2023

Penn State vs. Purdue odds, spread: 2022 college football picks, Week 1 predictions from model on 45-32 run

The Penn State Nittany Lions are looking to start on a high note after two trying seasons, and they visit Ross-Ade Stadium to face the Purdue Boilermakers on Thursday night. The Nittany Lions started 5-0 last season but lost six of their last eight. Now they kick off this campaign with a trip to West Lafayette, Ind. to take on a Purdue team they have absolutely dominated. They are 15-3-1 all-time in the series, with nine straight victories dating to 2004. The Boilermakers won nine games last season for the first time since 2003, but they know a loss Thursday night in the cross-division Big Ten matchup would be a huge setback in a season of high expectations. Both teams will rely heavily on passing games led by sixth-year seniors, with PSU’s Sean Clifford on the brink of numerous school records. Purdue’s Aidan O’Connell put up big numbers in guiding his team to six wins in his nine starts last season. The last meeting between the teams was in 2019, a 35-7 Penn State victory in Happy Valley.

Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET in West Lafayette, Ind. The Nittany Lions are 3.5-point favorites in Caesars Sportsbook’s latest Penn State vs. Purdue odds, and the over/under for total points scored is 53.5. Before making any Purdue vs. Penn State picks or Week 1 college football predictions, you need to see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It enters Week 1 of the 2022 college football season on a 45-32 run on all top-rated college football spread and money-line picks that dates back to 2021. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Penn State vs. Purdue and just locked in its picks and CFB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several college football odds and betting lines for Purdue vs. Penn State:

  • Penn State vs. Purdue spread: Nittany Lions -3.5
  • Penn State vs. Purdue over/under: 53.5 points
  • Penn State vs. Purdue money line: Nittany Lions -170, Boilermakers +143
  • PSU: Penn State is 9-2 against the spread in its past 11 games in September.
  • PUR: Purdue is 5-1 ATS in its past five games, with three wins as an underdog.
  • Penn State vs. Purdue picks: See picks at SportsLine

Featured Game | Purdue Boilermakers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions

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Why Penn State can cover

Unless Kyle Orton shows up under center for Purdue, Penn State has an excellent chance. He was the quarterback in 2003 and ’04 for the Boilermakers’ only two victories against PSU since 1951. The Nittany Lions won the other 15 after losing the inaugural meeting in 1951 and a tie in ’52. Clifford needs 2,031 yards to break the Penn State all-time record for passing yards. He threw for 3,107 and 21 TDs last season, with eight interceptions. PSU has scored at least 34 points in four straight meetings, including 62 in its last visit to Ross-Ade Stadium in 2016.

The receiving corps lost Jahan Dotson to the NFL, but Parker Washington should step in after catching 64 passes for 820 yards. Transfer Mitchell Tinsley was eighth in the nation with 1,402 yards on 87 catches for Western Kentucky last season. PSU averaged just 107.8 rushing yards per game last season, but Purdue was by far the worst in the Big Ten at 84.2, and Nittany Lions starter Keyvone Lee averaged 4.9 yards per carry. The Nittany Lions defense allowed under 200 passing yards per game and had 14 interceptions last season, both third-best in the conference. 

Why Purdue can cover

Purdue will be on a huge stage in its home stadium, and it knows a victory could propel it toward a historic season. Purdue is 20-8 ATS as an underdog under coach Jeff Brohm. The Boilermakers won five of their final six in 2021, covering the spread in each victory. The only setback was a 28-point loss to Ohio State. The Boilermakers beat then-No. 2 Iowa and fifth-ranked Michigan State last season, and O’Connell threw for 536 yards against the Spartans. He averaged 432 yards and completed 72 percent of his passes in the final five games.

O’Connell’s childhood friend Charlie Jones could have a big impact for Purdue after transferring from Iowa. He was a standout return man, averaging 25.4 yards on 25 kickoff returns, and caught 21 passes last season. Broc Thompson, who broke out with 217 yards in the Music City Bowl victory against Tennessee, should be ready after surgery on both knees. Tight end Payne Durham remains as a reliable target for O’Connell after scoring six TDs and catching 45 passes in 2021. Purdue averaged 29.1 points last season, while Penn State scored 23.9 per game. 

How to make Purdue vs. Penn State picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 51 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Penn State vs. Purdue? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college football picks, and find out. 

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