Friday, December 9, 2022

2022 NFL win total odds, picks: Bet Over on Chiefs, fade Patriots and more staff predictions

The start of the 2022 NFL regular season is just a week away, which means you have just one week to lock in your futures bets. Over at Caesars Sportsbook, they have intriguing props on a number of futures, such as which player will win MVP, who will lead the NFL in passing touchdowns and who will win Defensive Rookie of the Year. Then, there are the Over/Under win totals. 

Each year, I attempt to gather the best and brightest at CBS Sports, so that we can argue which NFL teams are going to impress during the upcoming season, and which ones will disappoint. This year, I asked each of our CBS stars to give me two best Over/Under bets. Before we get started, here’s the rundown on the panel: Senior writer Pete Prisco and Pick Six Podcast host Will Brinson, plus CBS Sports editors Kevin Steimle, Brett Anderson and Kyle Stackpole, writers John Breech, Ryan Wilson, Chris Trapasso, Jordan Dajani, Shanna McCarriston, Jared Dubin, Josh Edwards, Tyler Sullivan, Bryan DeArdo, Cody Benjamin and Jeff Kerr. 

We will list every win total for context, but not all teams will have a “best bet.” Let’s go ahead and jump in.

All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.

Arizona Cardinals

Over 9 (+118) | Under 9 (-140)

No best bets

Atlanta Falcons

Over 5 (+122) | Under 5 (-145)

Benjamin: Under 5. If you could throw to Kyle Pitts every play without the defense adjusting, they might be fine. But even in their division, wins will be hard to come by. This team feels primed for a bigger overhaul come 2023.

Baltimore Ravens

Over 9.5 (-165) | Under 9.5 (+140)

No best bets

Buffalo Bills

Over 11.5 (-140) | Under 11.5 (+118)

No best bets

Carolina Panthers

Over 6.5 (+100) | Under 6.5 (-120)

McCarriston: Over 6.5. The Panthers need to stay healthy, but if they do I believe they can win more than six games. They have a new quarterback in Baker Mayfield who will be determined to prove himself and as of right now, star running back Christian McCaffrey is ready to go for the season. They are certainly a team with a lot of questions, but the strength of their division and their schedule makes me think they are capable of putting up more than six wins.

Chicago Bears

Over 6 (-105) | Under 6 (-115)

Anderson: Under 6. The Bears have a bad offensive line, Justin Fields‘ rookie year was awful, they lost Allen Robinson from a lousy WR group and they’ve got a first-time head coach whose expertise is on the defense. I think what I’m trying to say is they’re not going to score very many points. Maybe Chicago won’t be bad on ‘D’, but they traded away Khalil Mack and Roquan Smith wants to be traded too. Meanwhile, the Vikings and Lions should be much improved and the Packers will be good. I don’t see six wins here.

Stackpole: Under 6. The Bears won six games last season. Since then, the Vikings and Lions have gotten better while the Packers, even absent Davante Adams, still own Chicago. Add in that the Bears have a new coaching staff and perhaps the NFL‘s worst receiving corps, and it’s just going to be too hard for the offense to keep up with opponents to go over this number.

Brinson: Under 6. This was obviously much more attractive when it was 6.5, but I don’t think it matters much. The Bears are a really bad football team with a really bad roster and a second-year quarterback who has virtually no help in terms of skill position guys. The defense gave up several of the best players on the defensive line and shouldn’t be able to stop the run. A new coaching staff and front office is clearly trying to setup for a full-blown rebuild and while the Bears have an easy schedule I just don’t see a real clear path for them to win more than six games.

Cincinnati Bengals

Over 9.5 (-135) | Under 9.5 (+115)

No best bets

Cleveland Browns

Over 8.5 (+130) | Under 8.5 (-155)

McCarriston: Under 8.5. The Cleveland Browns will start off the season with Jacoby Brissett at starting quarterback, with Deshaun Watson suspended 11 games for violating the league’s personal conduct policy. The Browns do not have the most difficult strength of schedule based on last year’s opponents’ wins, but being tied for 17th in the category does mean they will face some tough opponents. With the Cincinnati Bengals and the Baltimore Ravens in their division, racking up wins will be difficult with the team they have.

Dallas Cowboys

Over 10.5 (+130) | Under 10.5 (-155)

Edwards: Under 10.5. Dallas would have to go 11-6 or better for me to lose money and the odds of that happening are slim. The Cowboys did not improve last year’s team and it is not unreasonable to question whether or not there may be some defensive regression in their future.

Denver Broncos

Over 10 (+105) | Under 10 (-125)

DeArdo: Under 10. Ten wins is a high number for a team with a new coach that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2015. On paper, the Broncos have the talent to end their playoff drought, but will they be able to win enough games in arguably the NFL’s toughest division? And will Russell Wilson return to form after a so-so final season in Seattle? Wilson will more than likely return to play at a Pro Bowl level, but I’m still taking the Broncos to finish with single digit wins.

Detroit Lions

Over 6.5 (-155) | Under 6.5 (+130)

No best bets

Green Bay Packers

Over 11 (+100) | Under 11 (-120) 

No best bets

Houston Texans

Over 4.5 (+100) | Under 4.5 (-120)

Anderson: Over 4.5. The Texans won four games last year amid the Deshaun Watson mess, turning to then-rookie Davis Mills after he started just 11 games in his college career. Mills showed potential and now has 11 NFL starts under his belt, while Brandin Cooks is a good WR, and both Nico Collins and Dameon Pierce have been preseason gems. This is not to say the Texans will be good, but they need only win one more game than last year to go Over, and their schedule has the Bears, Giants and Washington, a home game vs. a rusty Watson, plus two games each against the Jags and the rest of a division where games are usually close. We’re getting +100 that they’ll win five in a 17-game schedule? Grab it.

Trapasso: Over 4.5. Houston’s roster isn’t great, but to me it’s clearly on the rise. Davis Mills was the best rookie quarterback last season — yes, his finish pushed him ahead of Mac Jones — and the front office added some fun pieces to the secondary. This team went 4-13 a year ago, which included a 1-4 record in one-score games. They’ll *at least* be a game better in 2022. 

Indianapolis Colts

Over 10 (-115) | Under 10 (-105)

No best bets

Jacksonville Jaguars

Over 6.5 (+100) | Under 6.5 (-120)

Sullivan: Over 6.5. The dumpster fire that was the Urban Meyer experience is over and now Doug Pederson is running the show in Jacksonville. I expect that simple change in leadership to help this team exponentially and will get Trevor Lawrence back on track to being one of the best and brightest young quarterbacks in the game. I believe they’ll sweep the Texans, upset Washington out of the gate in Week 1, and handle both New York teams that are on the schedule. That already gets us to five wins and we haven’t even mentioned they’ll play the Lions in Week 13. If they can surprise one team or even split the season series with their other AFC South opponents, they should get over this number. 

Kansas City Chiefs

Over 10.5 (-125) | Under 10.5 (+105)

Dubin: Over 10.5. This feels like stealing. In Patrick Mahomes‘ four seasons as the starter, the Chiefs have never won fewer than 12 games. How does 10.5 make sense as this line?

Kerr: Over 10.5. Don’t care how much better the AFC West is, hard to bet against Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs won 12 games last year with a serious threat from the Chargers in both their matchups and the Raiders making the playoffs. Mahomes is still one of — if not the — best player in football and Reid is the best coach in the game right now. The Chiefs passing game will be fine and their defense is an underrated unit. Long as Mahomes takes the field, just hit the over. 

Brinson: Over 10.5. Everyone is down on the Chiefs this year because KC dealt Tyreek Hill and the rest of the AFC West went full arms race. It’s understandable logic, but it ignores something very obvious: the Chiefs still have Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. Hill is a major loss, but there’s still Travis Kelce and the host of underrated weapons Reid can utilize in a variety of ways. Reid has only missed the over on his win total once since he got to Kansas City in 2013. 

Las Vegas Raiders

Over 8.5 (-130) | Under 8.5 (+110)

No best bets

Los Angeles Chargers

Over 10 (-150) | Under 10 (+130)

Breech: Over 10. I once swore to myself that I would never bet on anything involving the Chargers, but I have decided to break that vow because I feel like they’re a lock to hit this over. I actually think they might win 12 or 13 games, which will get them easily past 10. 

Los Angeles Rams

Over 10.5 (-110) | Under 10.5 (-110)

No best bets

Miami Dolphins

Over 8.5 (-135) | Under 8.5 (+115)

Dajani: Over 8.5. The Dolphins won nine games last year with one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL and with Tua Tagovailoa missing five starts. You’re telling me Vegas really doesn’t think they can win at least nine games in 2022 with all of the great additions they made? Head coach Mike McDaniel is one of the more intriguing up-and-coming figures in this league, the Dolphins added Tyreek Hill and Ced Wilson at receiver and Connor Williams and Terron Armstead on the offensive line. I’m aware that there are some questions about Tagovailoa, but maybe that’s the reason why Miami signed several legitimate running backs in free agency. If Tagovailoa struggles, the Dolphins should still be able to rely on this new ground game. That’s how McDaniel had to operate last year with the San Francisco 49ers

Minnesota Vikings

Over 9 (-135) | Under 9 (+115)

No best bets

New England Patriots

Over 8.5 (-125) | Under 8.5 (+105)

Prisco: Under 8.5. I just don’t see the talent on this roster and the offense has been a mess this preseason. This pick goes against the history with Bill Belichick, but I am bucking the trend that he will have a losing season in New England. 

Sullivan: Under 8.5. The change in approach on offense — and those who have their hand on the wheel of that offense — has me spooked for New England and has a chance of blowing up in Bill Belichick’s face. Not only are there concerns about the offense, but the cornerback spot is still a concern for me and their schedule isn’t particularly kind. Yes, there’s an easy patch in the middle but you’re still looking at a top-10 most difficult schedule in the league when looking at their opponents’ projected win total. They are also tied with the Texans for the second-worst Net Rest Edge in the league, according to Sharp Football Analysis. With the AFC getting more difficult by the minute and the division improving with Miami making moves this offseason, I’m fading the Pats in 2022.

Trapasso: Under 8.5. I know, I know, the old adage is never bet against the Patriots. But this is clearly not the Tom Brady Patriots anymore. And while I am keenly aware of the game-planning and defensive prowess of Bill Belichick, there’s only so much he can do. The offense is being run by Matt Patricia and Joe Judge (!) and lacks weaponry around solid but limited second-year quarterback Mac Jones, and the secondary has been stripped of its stars. I see New England taking a few steps backward in 2022 in what will be a deeper AFC East. Actually, it feels much would have to go right for New England to land at even 8-9. 

New Orleans Saints

Over 8.5 (-130) | Under 8.5 (+110)

Dubin: Under 8.5. If you’re going to let me bet on Jameis Winston not going .500 or better after losing Sean Payton as his head coach, I’m going to do it.

Prisco: Over 8.5. The Saints will be driven to the postseason and a division title by their defense. That’s a big change from the Drew Brees years, but this year’s defense might end up as the best in the NFL. Jameis Winston has to take care of the ball and they will be a playoff team. He does. 

Dajani: Over 8.5. The Saints won nine games last year despite not having Jameis Winston for more than half the season, and they again swept the season series with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Winston looked much better in 2021 compared to his last season as a starter in 2019. He won five of seven starts and threw 14 touchdowns opposed to just three interceptions. I understand if people don’t see Winston as a top-tier signal-caller, but you have to keep in mind that he finally has a wide receiving corps to work with thanks to the additions of Jarvis Landry, Chris Olave and the return of Michael Thomas. Oh, and the defense will be a top five unit too.

New York Giants

Over 7 (+105) | Under 7 (-125)

Steimle: Under 7. This feels like stealing to me. The Giants offense should improve, but there’s really nowhere to go but up there. The offensive line is better but some injuries on the interior of the line should slow the progress and continuity. The depth in the secondary scares me and if defensive coordinator Wink Martindale stays true to form with a blitz-happy defense, it’s going to be problematic. The schedule is not too difficult but this team will need to learn to crawl before it can walk. I can see some strides being made under Brian Daboll and I think the future is bright with him and Joe Schoen at the helm, but not enough to get to seven wins this season. For what it’s worth, I’ve nailed the Giants win total four straight years.

New York Jets

Over 5.5 (-150) | Under 5.5 (+126)

No best bets

Philadelphia Eagles

Over 9.5 (-140) | Under 9.5 (+118)

Benjamin: Over 9.5. Yes, buy the hype. If Howie Roseman is good at one thing, it’s accelerating the contention window for rebuilding teams. Even if Jalen Hurts isn’t elite at QB, they’ve improved every area of weakness. And they still play in the NFC East.

Kerr: Over 9.5. I’m sorry, but this is ridiculously low for a team that won 9 games last season and have a much more talented roster. The Eagles solidified wide receiver with A.J. Brown, pass rusher with Haason Reddick, cornerback with James Bradberry, and safety with Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. Jordan Davis is expected to be a significant contributor to that defense in the trenches and their offensive line is arguably the best in football. Of course, this all comes down to Jalen Hurts — but he’s had a good summer. Hit the over in Philadelphia, especially since Dallas appears to be taking a slight step back. 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Over 7.5 (-105) | Under 7.5 (-135)

Wilson: Over 7.5. This feels disrespectful, even for a Steelers team without Big Ben. Mitch Trubisky, Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph all looked good in the preseason, and all are capable of running the offense — especially with the talent at the skill positions — but the biggest issue will be an offensive line that could be a bigger mess than a year ago. That said, the defense is stout and Mike Tomlin, who has been the coach since 2007, has never had a losing season. Don’t see that changing in 2022.

DeArdo: Over 7.5. This may be the most interesting team over/under of the season. The Steelers hitting the over/under will come down to four things: the play of Mitch Trubisky/Kenny Pickett, the pseudo re-vamped offensive line, Najee Harris‘ durability and the defense’s ability to overcome a questionable inside linebacker corps. Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season in Pittsburgh dating back to 2007. I don’t see him having one now.

Steimle: Over 7.5. Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season and it’s not going to happen this year either. I think Mitch Trubisky or Kenny Pickett can manage the offense and the defense should be good enough to get this team to at least eight wins. 

San Francisco 49ers

Over 10 (-110) | Under 10 (-110)

No best bets

Seattle Seahawks

Over 6 (+135) | Under 6 (-155)

Edwards: Under 6. I am usually looking for plus money, but this one was just too easy to pass up. I do not think Seattle has any desire to play themselves out of contention for a top quarterback prospect next April. I think that has been the plan ever since trading Russell Wilson. 

Dajani: Under 6. I predicted the Seahawks would take a step backward in 2021, and even said they had the worst roster in the division entering last season. That was a pretty hot take for a team that hadn’t finished lower than second in the NFC West since 2011. I could talk about Seattle’s QB situation entering this season or how this defense isn’t one of the best in the league, but there are two factors driving my decision to take the Under: Seattle resides in arguably the toughest division in the NFL, and it has to face the other toughest division in the NFL in the AFC West. That’s 10 games where Seattle likely won’t be favored. Throw in the fact that the Seahawks play the Buccaneers in Tampa, and that only helps my cause.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Over 11.5 (+118) | Under 11.5 (-140) 

Breech: Under 11.5. The Buccaneers have lost so many offensive linemen this offseason that I’m not even sure they’re going to have enough to field a team this year. By Week 4, Tom Brady is probably going to be wishing he had stayed retired. 

Wilson: Under 11.5. It’s foolish to bet against Tom Brady but maybe this is the year it all unravels. After all, the man is 45 years old and took an 11-day vacation in the middle of training camp. There have also been injuries to key players that makes me wonder if the Saints (and Jameis Winston!) could make a run at the division title.

Tennessee Titans

Over 9.5 (+135) | Under 9.5 (-155)

Stackpole: Under 9.5. Nobody likes this much juice, but it’s worth paying for here. Of the Titans’ 12 wins last year, five of them came in the AFC South, which isn’t likely to happen again with the Colts expected to win around 10 games, the Jaguars returning to competency under new coach Doug Pederson and the Texans being frisky in Year 2 with Davis Mills. And even if Tennessee is able to go 4-2 in its division, it would have to pick up six more wins playing the entire AFC West, NFC East, Packers, Bengals and Bills. I just don’t see that happening — especially without A.J. Brown to carry the passing game.

Washington Commanders

Over 7.5 (-125) | Under 7.5 (+105)

No best bets

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