Monday, February 6, 2023

Penn State vs. Purdue odds, spread: 2022 college football picks, Week 1 predictions by model on 45-32 run

The Purdue Boilermakers will try to end a long run of futility when they host the Penn State Nittany Lions on Thursday night in a Big Ten cross-division matchup. Purdue won five of its final six games last season, including two victories against top-five teams, and comes in with high expectations. The Nittany Lions went 7-6 and are 11-11 over the past two seasons, but they have beaten the Boilermakers in nine straight meetings, dating to 2004. Both teams have sixth-year seniors at quarterback, with Aidan O’Connell leading the Boilermakers and Sean Clifford calling the shots for PSU. The Nittany Lions won the most recent matchup 35-7 in State College in 2019, and in their last trip to West Lafayette, they demolished the Boilermakers 62-24.

Kickoff from Ross-Ade Stadium is set for 8 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists Penn State as a 3.5-point favorite in its latest Penn State vs. Purdue odds, while the over/under for total points scored is set at 52. Before making any Purdue vs. Penn State picks or Week 1 college football predictions, you need to see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It enters Week 1 of the 2022 college football season on a 45-32 run on all top-rated college football spread and money-line picks that dates back to 2021. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Penn State vs. Purdue and just locked in its picks and CFB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several college football odds and betting lines for Purdue vs. Penn State:

  • Penn State vs. Purdue spread: Nittany Lions -3.5
  • Penn State vs. Purdue over/under: 52 points
  • Penn State vs. Purdue money line: Nittany Lions -170, Boilermakers +143
  • PSU: Penn State is 9-2 against the spread in its past 11 games in September.
  • PUR: Purdue is 5-1 ATS in its past five games, with three wins as an underdog.
  • Penn State vs. Purdue picks: See picks at SportsLine

Featured Game | Purdue Boilermakers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions

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Why Penn State can cover

Penn State has scored at least 34 points in four straight meetings, and the 62 it put up in 2016 is the most points scored by a visitor in Ross-Ade Stadium’s 98-year history. Clifford and the offense should be able to match anything Purdue’s unit can do, as he threw for more than 3,000 yards with 21 TDs and just eight interceptions last season. Parker Washington, who caught 64 passes for 820 yards, and Western Kentucky transfer Mitchell Tinsley should be huge weapons. Tinsley had 87 catches for the Hilltoppers last season, with his 1,402 yards ranking eighth in the nation.

The road team is 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight meetings, and the Nittany Lions will be eager for a fast start. They were 5-0 last season but lost six of their final eight, and they have a defense that should stop almost anyone. PSU will be pleased to have both 329-pound run stopper PJ Mustipher and pass rusher Adisa Isaac back from injury up front. The defense yielded just 17.3 points per game and held opponents to fewer than 200 passing yards last year.   

Why Purdue can cover

Purdue will be on a huge stage in its home stadium, and it knows a victory could propel it toward a historic season. Purdue is 20-8 ATS as an underdog under coach Jeff Brohm. The Boilermakers won five of their final six in 2021, covering the spread in each victory. The only setback was a 28-point loss to Ohio State. The Boilermakers beat then-No. 2 Iowa and fifth-ranked Michigan State last season, and O’Connell threw for 536 yards against the Spartans. He averaged 432 yards and completed 72 percent of his passes in the final five games.

O’Connell’s childhood friend Charlie Jones could have a big impact for Purdue after transferring from Iowa. He was a standout return man, averaging 25.4 yards on 25 kickoff returns, and caught 21 passes last season. Broc Thompson, who broke out with 217 yards in the Music City Bowl victory against Tennessee, should be ready after surgery on both knees. Tight end Payne Durham remains as a reliable target for O’Connell after scoring six TDs and catching 45 passes in 2021. Purdue averaged 29.1 points last season, while Penn State scored 23.9 per game. 

How to make Purdue vs. Penn State picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 51 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Penn State vs. Purdue? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college football picks, and find out. 

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