Thursday, October 6, 2022

Week 1 NFL picks, odds, 2022 best bets from advanced model: This five-way football parlay returns 25-1

Last season, the Cincinnati Bengals began their improbable Super Bowl run with a thrilling overtime win as three-point underdogs against the Minnesota Vikings. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams dismantled Chicago to kick off their 12-5 season en route to their second Super Bowl championship. Cincinnati had only won four games in 2020, and the Giants Jaguars, Jets and Lions all won four games or fewer last season. All four are underdogs in the Week 1 NFL odds at Caesars Sportsbook, but is there value in taking any of them in your NFL bets?

The NFL schedule-maker gave fans plenty to look forward to in the first Sunday of action, including six divisional matchups. Sunday Night Football between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys could also provide a rematch of their incredible Week 1 showdown to kick off last season. Before you make any Week 1 NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,500 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 138-97 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Amazingly, it hasn’t missed a top-rated pick since Week 15 last season. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has locked in five confident NFL best bets for Week 1. If you successfully parlay its picks, you’d be looking at a massive payout of around 25-1. You can only see the model’s Week 1 NFL picks at SportsLine

Top Week 1 NFL picks

After simulating every game 10,000 times, the model is high on the Indianapolis Colts to cover as eight-point road favorites against the Houston Texans. The last time the Colts didn’t cover the spread against the Texans in Houston was in 2012. Last year, the Colts were 10-point favorites at Houston when they visited in December and went on to win 31-0.

Indianapolis returns with new starting quarterback Matt Ryan, who is just 1-2 against Houston all-time, but will face a very different Texans side than he’s seen in the past. The Texans allowed the 10th-most passing yards in the league last season (4,117) and had the fifth-lowest pressure rate on opposing quarterbacks (20.7 percent). Houston was even worse against the run and allowed the second-most rushing yards (2,418), which could set up Colts running back Jonathan Taylor for a breakout season-opener. See which other NFL parlay picks to make here.

How to make Week 1 NFL parlays

The model also jumped on four other NFL matchups where it says the line is way off, including an underdog that wins outright. You can only see the model’s NFL Week 1 best bets and parlay at SportsLine

What are the model’s top Week 1 NFL picks? And which other NFL matchups should you target for a strong 25-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to see the Week 1 NFL best bets from a model on a 138-97 run on its top-rated picks, and find out.

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