Thursday, October 6, 2022

College football odds, picks, predictions for Week 1, 2022: Proven computer model backing Florida, Alabama

The Week 1 college football schedules features three games between ranked teams, although one is flying under the radar. Most are aware of Georgia vs. Oregon in the afternoon and Notre Dame vs. Ohio State at night on Saturday, but No. 19 Arkansas and No. 23 Cincinnati will get together in an SEC vs. AAC contest. Cincy was routed by another SEC school — Alabama — in last year’s Cotton Bowl and it will look to exact revenge in the post-Desmond Ridder era. The Hogs are 6-point favorites in the latest Week 1 college football odds, per Caesars Sportsbook.

The Bearcats may have burst on the scene last year, but they are no one-year wonder and have won 29 of their last 30 regular-season games. But they’ve also never won in 24 all-time trips into SEC territory. Can these Bearcats end that drought and return immense value for anyone who backs them with their Week 1 college football bets. Before locking in any college football picks for Week 1 of the 2022 season, be sure to see the latest college football predictions from SportsLine’s proven model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It enters Week 1 of the 2022 college football season on a 45-32 run on all top-rated college football spread and money-line picks that dates back to 2021. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest college football odds for Week 1 from Caesars and locked in picks for every FBS matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top college football predictions for Week 1

One of the college picks the model is high on in Week 1: Florida (+3) easily stays within the spread at home versus No. 7 Utah at 7 p.m. ET. The Gators will ride the arm and legs of QB Anthony Richardson, who is projected to throw for nearly 300 yards and run for over 40 yards. Outside of Richardson, Florida also has a stable of running backs who can rack up yards on the ground and that group is expected to rush for over 100 yards on its own.

Utah went 10-4 last season and finished No. 12 in the final AP Poll, but the Utes struggled when they ventured outside the Pac-12. They lost all three of their non-conference FBS games, all of which weren’t at home and two of which came versus unranked squads. The defense allowed 35.7 PPG in those three games, a huge jump from the 19.2 points it allowed while beating up on the Pac-12. That defense is only expected to get worse after Utah lost the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year, LB Devin Lloyd, to the NFL.

Florida went 3-1 in non-conference FBS games last year and has the home field advantage on Saturday. The Gators are expected to win outright, and thus, they cover in nearly 60% of simulations.

Another prediction: No. 1 Alabama (-41.5) covers the massive number with ease at home vs. Utah State. The Tide cover in almost 60% of simulations versus a Utah State team which got its feet wet in a Week 0 win over UConn. However, the Aggies vastly underperformed as they were 24-point favorites, fell behind 14-0, didn’t take a lead until late in the first half and won by just 11 points.

UConn is no Alabama, which is the No. 1 team in the nation for a reason. The Tide lost in the CFP National Championship Game and finished No. 2 in the final AP Poll, but coach Nick Saban called 2021 a “rebuilding year” with so many new faces. Alabama returns, perhaps, the best two players in the country in Heisman-winning QB Bryce Young and SEC Defensive Player of the Year, Will Anderson Jr., who led the NCAA with 17.5 sacks last year.

After UConn rushed for 245 yards on 6.3 yards per carry, the Tide should run all over the Aggies defense. Alabama is projected to also rush for over 200 yards and 6.0 yards per carry, but Young will do the most damage against the team. He should kick off his quest to repeat as Heisman winner with a bang as the model has him topping 350 yards through the air. Alabama covers in almost 60% of simulations, with the Over (62.5) hitting well over 60% of the time. See which other teams the model likes here.

How to make college football picks for Week 1

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other FBS matchup in Week 1, and it’s calling for a big favorite to go down hard in a shocking upset. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what college football picks can you make with confidence? And which heavy favorite goes down hard? Check out the latest college football odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $3,600 in profit over the past six-plus seasons, and find out.

College football odds for Week 1 (via Caesars)

See full Week 1 college football picks, odds, predictions here

Saturday, Sept. 3

Colorado State at Michigan (-27.5, 58.5)

Featured Game | Michigan Wolverines vs. Colorado State Rams

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Cincinnati at Arkansas (-6, 51.5)

Featured Game | Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Cincinnati Bearcats

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Oregon at Georgia (-17.5, 52)

Featured Game | Georgia Bulldogs vs. Oregon Ducks

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UTEP at Oklahoma (-31.5, 57)

Rice at USC (-33.5, 61.5)

Utah at Florida (+3, 51)

Featured Game | Florida Gators vs. Utah Utes

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Utah State at Alabama (-41.5, 62.5)

Notre Dame at Ohio State (-17.5, 58.5)

Featured Game | Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

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Sunday, Sept. 4

Florida State at LSU (-3, 51.5)

Featured Game | LSU Tigers vs. Florida State Seminoles

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Monday, Sept. 5

Clemson at Georgia Tech (+21.5, 49)

Featured Game | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Clemson Tigers

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