Barring an injury, I don’t really expect much change to my Dynasty running back tiers before the first real football games are played in September. Well, at least for the top-five tiers. After that, just about anything is possible. That uncertainty is most obvious in Tier 6, where there’s more upside than downside, especially relative to their current value. Two guys I could see jumping at least one tier are Chase Edmonds and James Robinson.
Edmonds is involved in a three-man battle in Miami with Raheem Mostert and Sony Michel. Conventional wisdom suggests Edmonds will take passing downs while Mostert and Michel compete for early downs. But considering Edmonds was the first running back signed in free agency, we could be selling him short. If he earns even 50% of the running back rush attempts, he’s likely a top-20 back in redraft which could vault him into Tier 4.
Edmonds has nine games in his career with double-digit carries over the past three seasons. He’s averaged 17.7 PPR FPPG in those nine games, which would have tied him for RB8 last year with Najee Harris. Even if you remove his 35-point game from 2019, his 15.5 PPR FPPG would have made him RB12, just ahead of Nick Chubb. Edmonds’ upside is elite as long as he’s not stuck at six to eight carries per game.
Robinson may have to win touches as well, despite how good he’s been his first two years in the league. That’s partially because Travis Etienne is an elite talent and has had a great offseason. It’s mostly because Robinson has to prove he’s back to 100% after last year’s torn Achilles. If he does that, it sure sounds like the Jaguars would like him and Etienne in a committee, and in that situation, I’d project Robinson will get a majority of the carries and short-yardage work.
It was less than a year ago that Robinson was a top 20 Dynasty back well on his way to another top-12 season. If he regains that form, the Jaguars may have an exciting 1-2 punch at running back and Robinson will move up at least one tier.
Other backs I could see rising in the next few weeks are Tyler Allgeier, Rashaad Penny, Darrell Henderson, Kenneth Gainwell, and one of the 49ers. Until then, here are my updated Dynasty running back tiers: