Friday, August 19, 2022

Cubs vs. Phillies odds, prediction, line: 2022 MLB picks, Sunday, July 24 best bets from proven model

The Chicago Cubs take on the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday afternoon. The National League matchup is the first game of the day in Major League Baseball with an early first pitch. Citizens Bank Park hosts the action in the series finale between the two clubs. The Cubs won the first two games of the series, with the Phillies aiming to avoid a sweep at home.

First pitch is at 12:05 p.m. ET in Philadelphia. Caesars Sportsbook lists Philadelphia as a -130 favorite (risk $130 to win $100) on the money line, while the over-under, or total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, is 10 in the latest Cubs vs. Phillies odds. Before you make any Phillies vs. Cubs picks, be sure to check out the latest MLB predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, and it is 280-240 on top-rated MLB money-line picks since the start of the 2021 season, returning over $500 for $100 players. This is the same model that pegged the 2021 Atlanta Braves at 10-1 as one of three best bets to win it all last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Cubs vs. Phillies, and just revealed its coveted picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see all of the model’s MLB picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Phillies vs. Cubs:

  • Cubs vs. Phillies money line: Phillies -130, Cubs +110
  • Cubs vs. Phillies over-under: 10 runs
  • Cubs vs. Phillies run line: Phillies -1.5 (+143)
  • CHI: The Cubs are 16-19 in day games
  • PHI: The Phillies are 17-13 in day games
  • Cubs vs. Phillies picks: See picks at SportsLine.

Featured Game | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs

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Why you should back the Cubs

Chicago has a strong pitching projection for Sunday’s game. The Cubs have a bullpen with strong upside, as Chicago’s relief corps is in the top three of the National League in strikeout rate this season. To begin the day, the Cubs will lean on veteran left-hander Drew Smyly, who is walking only 2.2 batters per nine innings this season. In more than 850 career innings, he has a strikeout rate of 8.8 per nine innings, and Smyly also has a robust ground ball rate of 46.5 percent this season. 

Philadelphia has plenty of power, but the Phillies are below-average in walks and on-base percentage this season. On offense, Chicago should fare well against Philadelphia starter Bailey Falter, who has an OPS allowed of .911 and a WHIP of 1.46 this season. The Cubs are also above-average in triples and stolen bases this season, with solid marks in doubles, walks, and on-base percentage.

Why you should back the Phillies

The Phillies have plenty of strengths to focus on in this matchup. In addition to home-field advantage, Philadelphia is above-average among National League teams in runs scored, slugging percentage, OPS, and home runs. Kyle Schwarber, the NL home run leader, is in the center of the attack with 30 home runs and a .504 slugging percentage. 

The two-time All-Star gives the Phillies some punch in the middle of the lineup, and Falter is on the mound after allowing three earned runs or fewer in every single outing during the 2022 season. Philadelphia’s bullpen ranks in the top five of the NL in wins above replacement, with 9.65 strikeouts per nine innings. Chicago is below the NL average in home runs and runs scored, with Philadelphia seeking a badly-needed home win.

How to make Phillies vs. Cubs picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, projecting 9.2 combined runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the model’s MLB picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Cubs vs. Phillies? And which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.

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