Atletico Madrid hosts Sevilla on Sunday in a matchup of top four teams in the Spanish La Liga. Atletico (20-7-9) enters the matchup at Wanda Metropolitano Stadium third in the La Liga table, and it is assured a Champions League spot for next season by virtue of its sweep of fifth-place Real Betis. Sevilla (17-15-4) still has work to do, as it sits in fourth place, just five points ahead of Betis with two games to play. Sevilla won the previous league matchup 2-1 in December at Rámon Sanchez Pizjuan Stadium, but it has struggled on the road against Atletico. Sevilla has played to three consecutive draws, while Atletico has won two in a row, including a 1-0 victory against rival Real Madrid last weekend.
Kickoff is set for 1:30 p.m. ET in Madrid, Spain. Caesars Sportsbook lists Atletico as the +126 favorite (risk $100 to win $126) on the 90-minute money line in its latest Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla odds, with Sevilla the +265 underdog. A draw is priced at +200 and the over-under for total goals scored is set at 2.5, with the under juiced to -170. Before making any Sevilla vs. Atletico Madrid picks or Spanish La Liga predictions, you have to see what proven soccer insider Martin Green has to say.
After working in the sports betting industry for several years, Green became a professional sports writer and handicapper and has covered the game worldwide. Since then, his European soccer picks have been stunningly accurate. Green has generated almost $37,000 for $100 bettors since the 2017-18 season, and he has his finger on the pulse of the game all over the globe.
Now, Green has broken down the Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla matchup from every angle and just locked in his picks and La Liga predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are the betting lines and trends for Sevilla vs. Atletico Madrid:
- Atletico vs. Sevilla spread: Atletico -0.5 (+120)
- Atletico vs. Sevilla over-under: 2.5 goals
- Atletico vs. Sevilla money line: Atletico +126, Sevilla +265, Draw +200
- ATL: It has scored at least twice in eight of its last 14 La Liga games
- SEV: It has played to draws in 10 of its last 16 league matches (4-10-2)
Why you should back Atletico Madrid
Sevilla has not beaten Atletico in Madrid since 2008, and Los Rojiblancos have been playing much better defensively the past couple of months. They have six clean sheets in their past 12 games, conceding seven goals in that span, and opponents haven’t been getting many opportunities to score. Atletico is the only team in La Liga to have allowed fewer than 100 shots on goal, yielding just 89, and opponents are putting just over 27 percent of attempts on target, the best mark in the league. Goalkeeper Jan Oblak has 12 clean sheets this season.
Atletico has more dangerous options up front than Sevilla, with Luis Suarez and Angel Correa both scoring 11 goals this season. Matheus Cunha and Rodrigo De Paul both scored in a 2-0 win against Elche on Wednesday that secured the Champions League spot. Cunha and Yannick Carrasco have six goals apiece and a combined nine assists and should pick up the slack with Joao Felix (eight) out injured. Antoine Griezmann (three goals, three assists) is also a key part of the attack, and De Paul (two goals) should be helping run the show in central midfield.
Why you should back Sevilla
Los Nervionenses have been the best defensive team in the league and desperately need a result. They have allowed just 29 goals in the 36 matches and lead the league with 15 draws. Yassine Bouno has a league-best 77.9 save percentage and ranks third in La Liga with 13 clean sheets. Sevilla should be able to hold possession and isn’t likely to allow many scoring opportunities. It held the ball for 55 percent of the last meeting, and Atletico had 15 shots but put just three on net. Just 28 percent of shots against Sevilla are on target, third-best in the league.
It holds the ball at a far higher rate than Atletico, keeping it an average of 59.6 percent of matches compared to Atletico’s 51.2. Sevilla also has been one of the best teams in La Liga in road matches. It has lost just three times in 18 games (6-9-3) and has allowed just 12 goals. Rafa Mir is the top scorer with nine goals, often coming off the bench. Lucas Ocampos, the No. 2 scorer with six goals, and top assist man Ivan Rakitic scored in the last meeting. Rakitic has scored four goals and set up six. Sevilla has 12 players who have scored at least two goals.
How to make La Liga and Atletico vs. Sevilla picks
Green has scrutinized the Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla match from every angle, and he is leaning under on the goal total. He also provides two confident best bets, including one that returns more than 2-1, and has a full breakdown of the match. He’s only sharing his expert La Liga picks at SportsLine.
So, who wins Sevilla vs. Atletico Madrid in Sunday’s La Liga matchup? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to see the best bets for the Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla match, all from the European soccer expert who has generated almost $37,000 for $100 bettors over the past four seasons, and find out.