Friday, May 27, 2022

Dynasty Fantasy Football Tight End Tiers: Cole Kmet’s target opportunity gives him major upside

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The May version of Dynasty Tiers is going to look a little bit different. You can thank recent podcast guest Rich Hribar for that. On a Tuesday’s episode of Fantasy Football Today, Rich talked about his tiers over at Sharp Football Analysis and how they are somewhat tethered to his rankings, but only loosely. Instead, he tiers more by archetype. I told him that sounded like a more fun way to do it, and I’m trying it out here. You can let me know what you think.

It’s easy to see why people may be tempted to say the position looks deep right now. Especially with names like Rob Gronkowski and Zach Ertz all the way down in Tier 7. But the true test of whether this position is deeper for the long haul falls on Tier 4.

Cole Kmet, my favorite tight end in that tier, had a pretty great offseason so far and looks highly likely to be Justin Fields‘ second-favorite target come Week 1. Each year we get a late-round surprise in the top five at tight end and the one thing they often have in common is that they finish first or second on their own team in targets. 

If Kmet is able to parlay a big target share into a top-five season, he’ll certainly vault into Tier 3, and possibly higher. After all, there’s no one in Tier 2 that we should expect to maintain much longer. So while Tier 4 may hold the key to position depth, it may also be where we find the most likely future No. 3 tight end behind Kyle Pitts and Mark Andrews.

If I was going to speculate on who that might be (other than Kmet) I’d guess Noah Fant. That’s partially because I’m a sucker for his athletic profile. But also, he could be entering 2023 as the No. 2 threat in the offense behind DK Metcalf with a high-profile rookie quarterback throwing him the football. If Fant could just stay healthy this year and give us another low-end top-12 season he could be in line for a major breakout in the following season, which will also coincide with his contract year.

Here are my updated TE tiers:

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