Sunday, May 22, 2022

76ers vs. Heat prediction, odds, line: 2022 NBA playoff picks, Game 4 best bets from model on 86-58 run

The Philadelphia 76ers look to even the score when they face the Miami Heat on Sunday evening in the 2022 NBA playoffs. Philadelphia hosts Game 4 of the Eastern Conference semifinals at the Wells Fargo Center, with Miami leading the series 2-1. The Sixers won Game 3 behind the return of Joel Embiid, opening the door for Philadelphia to climb back into the series with another home win

Tipoff is at 8 p.m. ET in Philadelphia. Caesars Sportsbook lists Philadelphia as the two point home favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 207.5 in the latest Heat vs. 76ers odds. Before making any 76ers vs. Heat picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the third full week of the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 86-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Sixers vs. Heat, and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Heat vs. Sixers:

  • Heat vs. 76ers spread: 76ers -2
  • Heat vs. 76ers over-under: 207.5 points
  • Heat vs. 76ers money line: 76ers -130, Heat +110
  • MIA: The Heat are 5-3 against the spread in playoff games
  • PHI: The 76ers are 5-4 against the spread in playoff games

Featured Game | Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat

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Why the Heat can cover

Miami’s offense is efficient and effective, led by a stellar performance from Jimmy Butler to this point in the playoffs. The Heat are dominating the offensive glass, securing more than 30 percent of missed shots in the playoffs, and Miami led the NBA in 3-point accuracy during the regular season. Still, the Heat leave the biggest mark on defense in flummoxing opponents. Miami is No. 2 in the NBA playoffs 2022 with a 104.7 defensive rating, and the Heat were No. 4 in the league in the same category during the regular season. 

The Heat are securing 75.8 percent of available defensive rebounds in the postseason, holding opponents to 44.4 percent shooting and 32.0 percent from 3-point range. Miami is also allowing only 18.8 assists per game while creating 15.8 turnovers per contest. In zooming out to a larger sample, the Heat led the NBA in points allowed in the paint this season, giving up only 41.3 per game, and Miami ranked in the top five of the league in 3-point defense, field goal percentage defense, assists allowed and turnovers created per game.

Why the 76ers can cover

Philadelphia’s defense responded in a big way in Game 3, holding Miami in check. The Heat scored less than 0.9 points per possession in what became a 20-point win for the 76ers, and Philadelphia has tangible defensive strengths. Doc Rivers’ team is holding opponents to only 44.2 percent shooting in the postseason, and the 76ers are allowing only 30.5 percent shooting from 3-point range. Philadelphia is limiting opponents to 20.4 assists per game, a stout figure, and the 76ers were in the league’s top tier in 3-point defense and assist prevention in the regular season. 

On the other end, the 76ers are impressively efficient, scoring nearly 1.15 points per possession in the playoffs. Philadelphia boasts an elite 60.6 percent true shooting mark, including nearly 38 percent from 3-point range, and Tyrese Maxey is lighting it up in the playoffs, scoring 22.4 points per game and shooting 51.4 percent from the floor. Dating back to the regular season, Philadelphia ranked in the top four of the NBA in free throw accuracy, free throw creation, turnover avoidance and live-ball turnover avoidance, providing a strong offensive baseline.

How to make Heat vs. 76ers picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting 215 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model’s Heat vs. 76ers picks at SportsLine.

So who wins 76ers vs. Heat? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out. 

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