Sunday, May 22, 2022

NBA picks, best bets: Jump on Heat’s first-quarter line if DeAndre Jordan starts again; lean on Suns in Dallas

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With the 2021-22 NBA regular season now in the books, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals. All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers

Featured Game | Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat

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This is a dangerous bet to make far in advance, so I’d wait until we know a bit more, but for now, Joel Embiid is listed as out for Game 3, but reportedly cleared concussion protocols and badly wants to play. Those who follow me on Twitter or keep up with these picks know what a special opportunity that presents to the gambling opportunity: guaranteed DeAndre Jordan minutes! The 76ers have actually outscored the Heat in this series when Jordan isn’t in the game … but are minus-31 in the 30 minutes Jordan has played. While Doc Rivers didn’t come out quite as strong in his defense after Game 2 as he did in Game 1, he did push back on the notion that center has been his team’s weakness in this series. “You can’t blame DJ. You can’t blame Paul. They’re doing their best,” Rivers said. Reed’s best is fine. Jordan’s isn’t good enough. If we assume that Jordan is getting the start again, the play is to jump on Miami’s first-quarter line to ensure that we’re betting against Jordan, specifically. The Heat have covered their first-quarter spread in both games thus far. The pick: Heat -0.5 in the first quarter

Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks

Featured Game | Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns

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Phoenix has controlled the last two games relatively comfortably, but this line has, predictably, moved toward the Mavericks as the series has shifted to Dallas. My question is … why? The Suns had a better road record (32-9) than the Mavericks did at home (29-12). This game could be played on Jupiter and it wouldn’t change the fact that Phoenix has identified Luka Doncic‘s only real weakness: defending one-on-one in space. The Suns have allowed him to score a frankly unsustainable amount of points in this series, but in the process, have exhausted him to the point that Chris Paul and Devin Booker can torture him in pick-and-roll late in the game. Until Dallas finds a solution for that, the Suns should be favored in every game these two teams play. The pick: Suns PK

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