Friday, May 27, 2022

NBA picks, best bets: Heat to capitalize on 76ers starting DeAndre Jordan again; Mavs-Suns to hit the over

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With the 2021-22 NBA regular season now in the books, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals. All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat

Doc Rivers is standing firm on DeAndre Jordan. “We like DJ,” Rivers said after Game 1. “We’re gonna keep starting him whether you like it or not.” This should be music to the betting community’s ears, because Jordan is almost certainly the worst rotation player left in the playoffs. Among players with at least 225 minutes played, he had the worst net rating on his past three teams. Philadelphia, a 51-win team, lost his regular-season minutes by 7.7 points per 100 possessions. Philadelphia lost his 17 minutes in Game 1 by 22 points. When he plays, his team struggles, and if he’s starting, we know that he’s playing in the first quarter. The Heat won the first quarter by eight points in Game 1 largely off of the lead they built in Jordan’s minutes, yet the first quarter spread hasn’t changed. Let’s hit it again. The pick: Heat -3 in the first quarter

Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns

Featured Game | Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks

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Game 1 of this series produced 235 total points, but nothing about it felt unsustainable. The two sides combined to shoot roughly 40 percent from behind the arc. That’s high, but hardly an extreme outlier in a one-game setting. They combined to take 43 free throws after averaging 40 in the regular season. Luka Doncic probably won’t score 45 points again, but his entire supporting cast, which shined against Utah, struggled mightily against Phoenix’s superior defense. They won’t be as good as they were against the Jazz, but they’re better than we saw in Game 1. Game 2 might not be as high scoring as Game 1 was, but we have a huge cushion to work with here. The pick: Over 216

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