Monday, May 23, 2022

UFC 270 predictions, best bets, odds: Brandon Moreno vs. Deiveson Figueiredo among top picks to consider

UFC 270 goes down this Saturday in Anaheim, California, and as the first UFC pay-per-view of the year, there is plenty of big action ready to get 2022 off to a big start for fighters and gamblers alike. A pair of title fights tip the bill with heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou taking on interim belt holder Ciryl Gane in the main event and flyweight king Brandon Moreno battling former champ Deiveson Figueiredo in the co-main event.

The champion Ngannou enters this first title defense on shaky ground with UFC brass. The native of Cameroon is hoping to secure a more lucrative contract while president Dana White seems intent on keeping his salary as is. The destructive knockout artist has done just about everything imaginable inside the Octagon to this point with 11 stoppages in his 13 career appearances. Gane, meanwhile, is a perfect 10-0 in his pro career with nearly equal types of wins across the board. He’ll enter as the slight betting favorite with bettors expecting his slick, defensive style to slow the fast charging attack of Ngannou.

Meanwhile in the co-main event, the flyweight title is on the line when champion Brandon Moreno faces former titleholder Deiveson Figueiredo. Moreno climbed the ranks at 125 pounds after being cut by the promotion in 2018. He returned in 2019 after scoring a TKO win for the LFA title and has ripped off a 4-0-2 record in UFC since, including fighting Figueiredo to a draw in December 2019 on just three weeks’ notice. He then submitted Figueiredo in their rematch last June to earn the championship. A win by Figueiredo could set up an unprecedented fourth meeting between to the two combatants.

The undercard features some exciting fighters looking to send a message on a massive stage. Look no further than the feature bout on the main card when Michel Pereira takes on Andre Fialho at welterweight. Pereira is as flashy as they come, with an array of wild strikes that always get the fans going. But he gets a tough test in Fialho, who is making his promotional debut after years on the regional scene. In 14 career wins, Fialho has scored stoppages in 11 of them.

For many, there’s no better way to add a little extra spice to a big night of fights than having a little money on the line. With so many intriguing fights on the card and so many close fights, it’s a great card to get in on some of the action.

Caesars Sportsbook has you covered with every angle of UFC 270 to get in on the action. We’re going to give you a few options to consider with this card from our favorite moneyline play, prop play and parlay play. Let’s take a closer look at those picks now.

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Best moneyline pick

Trevin Giles (+105) vs. Michael Morales

Morales is making his UFC debut after picking up a decision win on Dana White’s Contender Series. He’s undefeated with some good skills but moving up to the big stage has had a big impact on plenty of talented fighters. Giles is explosive and dangerous with some good wins in his career at middleweight. Giles was undersized at 185 pounds, however, and decided to move down to welterweight for the first time in his career. It’s not a massive weight cut for Giles, but it should leave him in an unfamiliar situation of being the bigger, stronger man for the first time in the UFC. Giles is a higher output fighter whose pressure is likely to bother Morales, making him an intriguing pick as a slight underdog.

Best prop pick

Andre Fialho vs. Michel Pereira under 2.5 rounds (-137)

This pick was originally Rodolfo Vieira via submission against Wellington Turman, but Vieira withdrawing from the fight on Friday morning forced a change. Pereira is such a wildcard that it can be dangerous to think you have a read on him but certain things jump out here. Namely, both men are reckless and both have the skills to finish a fight. The fight failing to go the full distance is -175, so there’s better value in giving up the final 150 seconds and taking the under 2.5 rounds. Pereira has only had one of his six UFC fights end in the first 2.5 rounds but only four of Fialho’s 18 career fights have hit that mark, including a 21-second loss in Bellator. Look for careless striking exchanges to open up one or the other to getting hit with a fight-ender.

Best parlay pick

Said Nurmagomedov vs. Cody Stamann to go the distance: YES (-270)

Brandon Moreno vs. Deiveson Figueiredo over 2.5 rounds (-200)

Genaro Valdez vs. Matt Frevola to go the distance: NO (-162)

Parlay total: (+232)

Stamann has fought nine times in the UFC, with all but one of those fights going to decision. Nurmagomedov has finished two of his four UFC bouts, but seven of his previous 10 have gone to decision, making for a fairly clear first leg of the parlay. Both meetings between Moreno and Figueiredo have gone over 2.5 rounds, including Moreno’s dominant showing in the rematch. There’s no reason to believe there will be a quick finish this time around and over 2.5 rounds feels safe here. Similar to the above pick, Vieira vs. Turman was on the original picks, with the fight not going to the distance as the third leg of the parlay. We replace that pick with Valdez and Frevola ending before the final bell. Valdez is a perfect 10-0 with 10 finishes and is a very appealing pick as an underdog. He does, however, routinely end up in risky positions due to a somewhat careless style. Frevola has gone to the scorecards in half of his fights and has been knocked out twice. It sets up as a style vs. style match that should lead to a finish.

Who wins Ngannou vs. Gane? And what other picks do you need to see for a parlay with a payout of better than 16-1? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed top picks on UFC 270, all from the insider who’s up more than $10,000 on MMA picks the past two years, and find out. 

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