The Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos will close out Sunday’s action in the NFL when these AFC West clubs go head-to-head during “Sunday Night Football.” This matchup could have a major influence on the current playoff picture in the AFC as the Chiefs, who are riding a four-game winning streak, are clinging to a slim one-game lead in the division. A win by the Broncos could vault them back inside the postseason outlook as they’d sit in first place in the AFC West. With those stakes in mind, this is naturally more than just a primetime showdown between division rivals.
Below, we’ll specifically be looking at the different betting angles that this matchup has in store for us. We’ll be taking a look at how the lines have moved throughout the week leading into Sunday night and, of course, give you our picks for this game along with a handful of our favorite player props.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
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Latest Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -9.5
The Chiefs opened as a 9.5-point favorite, and that held until Monday morning before it jumped up at half-point to Chiefs -10. That number stood throughout the week until Friday, where it fell back down to its original number of -9.5.
The pick: Broncos +9.5. A lot is made about Andy Reid’s incredible record coming off the bye. While he is an astounding 19-3 as a head coach after the week-long break, Reid hasn’t been as favorable to bettors. Since joining the Chiefs in 2013, Kansas City is 6-6 ATS following the bye. Meanwhile, the Broncos are getting slept on a bit. They’ve won three of their last four, including an impressive performance by the defense last week against Justin Herbert and the Chargers. Teddy Bridgewater and rookie running back Javonte Williams are capable of keeping this game close.
Key trend: Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a bye week.
The total has seen a pretty steady decline as the week has progressed. After opening at 49.5, this total has sunk 2.5 points to 47 as of Saturday morning.
The pick: Under 47. While both of these offenses have pieces that are capable of putting up some major points, each of these defenses has been extremely stout as of late. Over the last three weeks, the Chiefs are allowing just 10 points per game (second-best in the NFL), while Denver has been holding opponents to just 19.7 points per game over that stretch and 17.8 points per game for the season (third-best in the NFL). The Broncos could also look to lean on the running game to help keep the Chiefs’ high-powered offense off the field as K.C. ranks 28th in the league in DVOA against the run.
Key trend: Under is 5-1 in Chiefs last six games.
Patrick Mahomes props
- Passing touchdowns: 2.5 (Over +150, Under -180)
- Passing yards: 288.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Total interceptions: 0.5 (Over +110, Under -140)
- Passing attempts: 36.5 (Over -125, Under -105)
- Longest passing completion: 37.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Total rushing yards: 18.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
Mahomes has been averaging an interception per game to this point in the season, so there would seem to be good value with the Over on his prop at +110. Denver’s secondary is also coming off a game last week where rookie Patrick Surtain II was able to snag two interceptions, including a pick-six. I also lean towards the Under on his passing yards prop of 288.5. Mahomes has gone over that number just four times this season and only one of those performances has at Arrowhead. Denver is also allowing just 224.2 passing yards per game this season.
Teddy Bridgewater props
- Passing yards: 247.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Total interceptions: 0.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Longest passing completion: 36.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
The Kansas City secondary has been much improved over the last few weeks, which could give Bridgewater some problems. In their last three games, the Cheifs are allowing just 207.3 passing yards per game. Meanwhile, Bridgewater has only topped this number twice in his last fives games.
Player props to consider
Tyreek Hill total rushing yards: Over 3.5 (-110). Hill is typically good for one rushing attempt per game this season, which typically comes in the form of a jet sweep. Of the eight games this season where he’s received a carry, Hill has gone over this rushing total six times. If you’re betting the over, you’re banking he utilizes his speed to get the edge and then it’s off to the races.
Travis Kelce total receptions: Over 5.5 (-150). Kelce has a strong track record against the Broncos. Over his career, he’s averaging over six catches and nearly 86 yards per game. Kelce has also gone over this number in seven of his 11 games played this season.